{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a2ae799-a414-4150-af64-ee62ce7fb21c", "symbol": "ERL", "name": "Empire Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.755, "architecture_energy": 81.646, "architecture_maturity": 28.165, "architecture_confidence": 92.915, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 19.13, "upward_expansion": 19.63, "deceleration": 38.37, "rotation_down": 70.89, "downward_expansion": 97.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0064, 0.006836, 0.008248, 0.009196 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.009933, "distance_from_trend": -0.395973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.005435, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.103991, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.482681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.395973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026144, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.103991, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.425214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.334827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.013932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2906872, "relative_activity": 0.695639, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.580282, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217949, "annualized_volatility": 1.1966, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.009933, "fair_value_reference": 0.005435, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.28125, "directional_follow_through": 0.28125, "median_excess_return": -0.012911, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.636661, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.045821, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.636661, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.074386, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.102172, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.163413, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.17923, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.454545, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 1.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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"relative_strength": -16.97364, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.303823, "energy": 78.859918, "activity_lines": [ 0.007333, 0.008218, 0.009652, 0.01012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.007, "volume": 844975, "typical_volume": 4513163.55, "trend": 0.0101, "fair_value": 0.005409, "relative_strength": -17.259456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.031034, "energy": 79.646299, "activity_lines": [ 0.007133, 0.007818, 0.009305, 0.009916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 3340476, "typical_volume": 4175805.1, "trend": 0.010067, "fair_value": 0.005422, "relative_strength": -17.583755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.043971, "energy": 74.653708, "activity_lines": [ 0.007, 0.007527, 0.008986, 0.009716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.006, "volume": 2607001, "typical_volume": 4226712.2, "trend": 0.01, "fair_value": 0.005428, "relative_strength": -31.248931, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.68755, "energy": 79.561305, "activity_lines": [ 0.006667, 0.007145, 0.0086, 0.009454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 2906872, "typical_volume": 4178710.1, "trend": 0.009933, "fair_value": 0.005435, "relative_strength": -33.482681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.755339, "energy": 81.645806, "activity_lines": [ 0.0064, 0.006836, 0.008248, 0.009196 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }