{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a2c17ec-2133-4ba5-b816-ba41a52df326", "symbol": "TAIL", "name": "CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "stage_color": "red", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "stage_age_weeks": 15, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_score": 51.765, "is_transition_watch": false, "confidence": 96.0, "composite_score": 80.926, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_color": "red", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.024, "architecture_energy": 80.676, "architecture_maturity": 39.135, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_age_weeks": 14, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.024, "energy": 80.676, "maturity": 39.135, "confidence": 96, "confirmation": 96.931, "age_weeks": 14, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Activity Lines are bearishly ordered below the 30-week Trend Line, their slopes are negative and price is accepted below the fan. Repair requires contraction and an upward fast/slow rotation\u2014not merely one strong week." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 23.92, "upward_expansion": 17.59, "deceleration": 40.96, "rotation_down": 65.81, "downward_expansion": 93.25 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 10.529, "10": 10.595774, "20": 10.70945, "30": 10.886544 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": -1.130541, "10": -0.721266, "20": -1.245742, "30": -1.039466 }, "bullish_order": 0.0, "bearish_order": 1.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.335453, "fan_width_change_4": 0.283832, "fan_width_percentile": 1.0, "fast_slow_gap_atr": -1.538987, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.216701, "price_acceptance": -0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": -0.581342, "accepted_above": 0.0, "accepted_below": 0.833333, "crossing_density": 0.0 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "The primary weekly trend is declining.", "body": "Price below a falling 30-week average with weak relative performance defines the defensive state. Bottom-fishing evidence is kept separate from a confirmed Stage 1 repair.", "phase": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "Stage 4 decline intact", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 52/100." }, "latest_close": 10.44, "sma_30": 11.08185, "distance_from_sma_30": -0.057919, "sma_30_slope": -0.025904, "fair_value": 11.397574, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084016, "fair_value_gap_change_13": -0.028885, "is_fair_value_repair": false, "mansfield_rs": -15.272827, "mansfield_rs_change_13": -0.61629, "range_position_52": 0.024009, "returns": { "13": -0.04388, "26": -0.076488, "52": -0.109966 }, "relative_returns": { "26": -0.161808, "52": -0.324801 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 65.11, "2": 0.0, "3": 26.55, "4": 100.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": false, "value": -0.057919, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.025904, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair 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divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. 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