{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a2e48f9-8c24-48a4-8eec-4f9b7d6a621c", "symbol": "BWIN", "name": "The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 87.265, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.1, "architecture_energy": 75.63, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.59, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.57, "rotation_up": 76.9, "upward_expansion": 91.56, "deceleration": 43.81, "rotation_down": 10.66, "downward_expansion": 15.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.938, 26.733818, 24.45081, 23.528989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 29.54, "trend_reference": 22.664667, "distance_from_trend": 0.30335, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.712179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.068497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.858791, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.509453, "excess_performance": 0.322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.30335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.068497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.294918, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038588, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.459692, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.509453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.628036, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6679094, "relative_activity": 0.886125, "balance": 1.628036, "dry_up": 0.829851, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095138, "annualized_volatility": 0.7907, "from_high_reference": -0.150905, "from_low_reference": 0.860202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.664667, "fair_value_reference": 31.712179, "structural_low": 15.88, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.01018, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000649, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.224908, "worst_return": -0.16214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.040559, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.047669, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.345423, "worst_return": -0.268233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07805, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090215, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.665299, "worst_return": -0.146933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.089806, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.184379, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.974463, "worst_return": -0.372613, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058683, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.223221, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.367874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095151, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157615, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108227, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.20183, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.34866, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214856, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039283, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11598, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 25.23, "volume": 2653847, "typical_volume": 1832612.0, "trend": 25.073667, "fair_value": 28.179167, "relative_strength": -18.840662, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.859001, "energy": 78.612031, "activity_lines": [ 26.677333, 24.200545, 22.939238, 22.470989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.47, "volume": 5821057, "typical_volume": 8018562.55, "trend": 22.416, "fair_value": 31.659231, "relative_strength": -3.505865, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.806323, "energy": 76.672773, "activity_lines": [ 26.926, 24.909091, 23.33319, 22.734409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.74, "volume": 7142094, "typical_volume": 7888990.4, "trend": 22.548, "fair_value": 31.678462, "relative_strength": 1.725883, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.845942, "energy": 73.255229, "activity_lines": [ 27.182667, 25.731273, 23.82219, 23.077892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.54, "volume": 6679094, "typical_volume": 7537420.95, "trend": 22.664667, "fair_value": 31.712179, "relative_strength": 3.858791, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.100248, "energy": 75.630225, "activity_lines": [ 27.938, 26.733818, 24.45081, 23.528989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }