{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a310ad3-6d42-4474-98f8-8a96dea36d3c", "symbol": "4721", "name": "Mechema Chemicals International Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.683, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.654, "architecture_energy": 45.33, "architecture_maturity": 6.519, "architecture_confidence": 71.555, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.58, "rotation_up": 15.38, "upward_expansion": 24.18, "deceleration": 50.55, "rotation_down": 65.0, "downward_expansion": 53.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.153334, 76.021765, 80.709999, 79.636385 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 74.300003, "trend_reference": 76.715103, "distance_from_trend": -0.031481, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.210826, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.794541, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.207205, "excess_performance": -0.234167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price 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"Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009972, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.051818, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.046316, "worst_return": -0.041985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.06743, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.042773, "worst_return": -0.130992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.096718, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.316006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30531, "worst_return": -0.129616, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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70.438995, "relative_strength": -27.848326, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.055879, "energy": 17.024393, "activity_lines": [ 77.573145, 82.514442, 83.731206, 80.611877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.900002, "volume": 2836118, "typical_volume": 9427455.2, "trend": 76.288114, "fair_value": 70.336001, "relative_strength": -32.037028, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.611156, "energy": 34.549078, "activity_lines": [ 73.484387, 79.380477, 82.408566, 80.070175 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.699997, "volume": 1813917, "typical_volume": 9226631.65, "trend": 76.435623, "fair_value": 70.267454, "relative_strength": -28.924804, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.152738, "energy": 46.314498, "activity_lines": [ 71.82437, 77.298476, 81.440231, 79.774167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 74.300003, "volume": 1840581, "typical_volume": 9110444.1, "trend": 76.715103, "fair_value": 70.210826, "relative_strength": -27.794541, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.65449, "energy": 45.329992, "activity_lines": [ 72.153334, 76.021765, 80.709999, 79.636385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }