{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a332e2c-a34f-4d3e-adb8-9a5eb6efe834", "symbol": "000551", "name": "Create Technology & Science Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.891, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.468, "architecture_energy": 37.027, "architecture_maturity": 24.877, "architecture_confidence": 54.376, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.21, "rotation_up": 19.39, "upward_expansion": 21.75, "deceleration": 65.25, "rotation_down": 65.96, "downward_expansion": 42.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.299333, 14.847811, 15.408536, 15.274358 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.57, "trend_reference": 15.175413, "distance_from_trend": -0.10579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.435023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300428, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.709147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.075613, "excess_performance": -0.083013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10579, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078523, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300428, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.425107, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075613, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.912861, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120850590, "relative_activity": 1.331436, "balance": 0.912861, "dry_up": 1.397899, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16677, "annualized_volatility": 0.688617, "from_high_reference": -0.373789, "from_low_reference": 0.283822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.175413, "fair_value_reference": 10.435023, "structural_low": 11.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001037, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.021812, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001037, "worst_return": 0.001037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.084025, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.171222, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084025, "worst_return": 0.084025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.068465, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.068465, "worst_return": -0.068465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024007, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054104, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.461671, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008844, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123602, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.315575, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.336193, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 8.551051, "volume": 17202979, "typical_volume": 27354920.35, "trend": 8.105883, "fair_value": 7.647925, "relative_strength": 9.306125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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"direction": -14.623469, "energy": 9.974924, "activity_lines": [ 15.303639, 15.908598, 15.861464, 15.573014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.38, "volume": 107800213, "typical_volume": 86994255.8, "trend": 15.21308, "fair_value": 10.402695, "relative_strength": -7.521941, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.072171, "energy": 35.679165, "activity_lines": [ 13.909333, 15.225411, 15.574119, 15.380363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.57, "volume": 120850590, "typical_volume": 90767075.3, "trend": 15.175413, "fair_value": 10.435023, "relative_strength": -3.709147, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.467712, "energy": 37.027017, "activity_lines": [ 13.299333, 14.847811, 15.408536, 15.274358 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }