{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a3918ba-1a67-4beb-ae23-35187c7194a2", "symbol": "603838", "name": "Guang Dong Sitong Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.594, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.597, "architecture_energy": 56.629, "architecture_maturity": 4.518, "architecture_confidence": 51.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.86, "rotation_up": 16.61, "upward_expansion": 19.94, "deceleration": 43.67, "rotation_down": 67.08, "downward_expansion": 59.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.869333, 8.263091, 8.673952, 8.693161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.6, "trend_reference": 8.544667, "distance_from_trend": 0.006476, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.532821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31643, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.864687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.139073, "excess_performance": 0.182277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006476, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033087, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31643, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190545, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078647, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1073, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139073, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.159087, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20513800, "relative_activity": 2.624648, "balance": 1.159087, "dry_up": 1.286951, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101878, "annualized_volatility": 0.499807, "from_high_reference": -0.178606, "from_low_reference": 0.490468 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.544667, "fair_value_reference": 6.532821, "structural_low": 6.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.05814, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.062477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.421189, "worst_return": 0.029145, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.200057, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.214302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.627907, "worst_return": -0.011628, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.200057, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.118274, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222868, "worst_return": 0.080103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.293442, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.208966, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.443798, "worst_return": 0.143086, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044515, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.294479, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027508, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.155822, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134328, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058017, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.275615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.173261, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 6.53, "volume": 10166300, "typical_volume": 7970900.95, "trend": 5.868657, "fair_value": 6.716456, "relative_strength": 8.263552, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.275611, 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"fair_value": 6.484872, "relative_strength": 7.090505, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.456883, "energy": 11.925526, "activity_lines": [ 9.051333, 9.139091, 9.133, 8.890151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.98, "volume": 7242342, "typical_volume": 8381661.2, "trend": 8.522333, "fair_value": 6.499936, "relative_strength": 5.656388, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.165639, "energy": 16.860649, "activity_lines": [ 8.665333, 8.903091, 9.03381, 8.856882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.07, "volume": 7948119, "typical_volume": 7959841.3, "trend": 8.508, "fair_value": 6.507885, "relative_strength": -7.713272, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.044474, "energy": 55.628572, "activity_lines": [ 8.039333, 8.528364, 8.848381, 8.763183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.33, "volume": 4530100, "typical_volume": 7303391.45, "trend": 8.507333, "fair_value": 6.516923, "relative_strength": -4.989036, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.422459, "energy": 64.208555, "activity_lines": [ 7.679333, 8.258909, 8.695571, 8.687183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.6, "volume": 20513800, "typical_volume": 7815829.65, "trend": 8.544667, "fair_value": 6.532821, "relative_strength": 7.864687, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.597086, "energy": 56.629303, "activity_lines": [ 7.869333, 8.263091, 8.673952, 8.693161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }