{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a397a8d-2235-4808-9b28-18a5316457f9", "symbol": "ISOE", "name": "iShares V PLC - iShares Gold Producers UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.725, "architecture_energy": 22.907, "architecture_maturity": 47.21, "architecture_confidence": 56.539, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.36, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 17.48, "deceleration": 63.21, "rotation_down": 34.16, "downward_expansion": 65.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.122667, 31.753818, 32.785041, 33.982155 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.16, "trend_reference": 35.620361, "distance_from_trend": 0.01515, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.278247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.699388, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.338008, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.03108, "excess_performance": -0.147742, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.699388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165947, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03108, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 128037, "relative_activity": 0.762214, "balance": 0.633709, "dry_up": 0.414251, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072328, "annualized_volatility": 0.531529, "from_high_reference": -0.227808, "from_low_reference": 0.620791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.620361, "fair_value_reference": 21.278247, "structural_low": 28.215, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015952, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.050454, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.162188, "worst_return": -0.062445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.140181, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.134751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259646, "worst_return": 0.020717, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.17738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.107348, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.370583, "worst_return": -0.015824, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049379, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.131839, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138001, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.325842, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112503, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.048276, "energy": 60.737311, "activity_lines": [ 30.567, 31.291273, 32.958623, 34.316714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.985001, "volume": 41647, "typical_volume": 203679.45, "trend": 35.623444, "fair_value": 21.122094, "relative_strength": -17.790416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.645872, "energy": 62.816338, "activity_lines": [ 30.265334, 30.926637, 32.558801, 33.947539 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.16, "volume": 128037, "typical_volume": 167980.35, "trend": 35.620361, "fair_value": 21.278247, "relative_strength": -2.338008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.725047, "energy": 22.907485, "activity_lines": [ 32.122667, 31.753818, 32.785041, 33.982155 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }