{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a413492-9f44-41bf-8d56-6755db2b9971", "symbol": "002718", "name": "Zhejiang Youpon Integrated Ceiling Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.175, "architecture_energy": 26.058, "architecture_maturity": 67.557, "architecture_confidence": 94.794, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.0, "rotation_up": 20.08, "upward_expansion": 54.69, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 43.4, "downward_expansion": 23.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.266666, 93.854545, 90.850952, 85.386839 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 86.75, "trend_reference": 78.367667, "distance_from_trend": 0.106962, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.662859, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.135974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 54.888869, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153897, "excess_performance": 0.146498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106962, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.399106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.135974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242631, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.548889, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132854, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153897, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.399236, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5640250, "relative_activity": 0.726771, "balance": 1.399236, "dry_up": 1.123367, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158555, "annualized_volatility": 0.610139, "from_high_reference": -0.264207, "from_low_reference": 4.207083 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.367667, "fair_value_reference": 27.662859, "structural_low": 53.060001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016087, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.026409, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.155116, "worst_return": -0.07525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017161, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.003518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.856106, "worst_return": -0.223986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05461, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.170558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.244615, "worst_return": -0.388481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.149562, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.315085, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.271538, "worst_return": -0.316151, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191894, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.067858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017177, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.305385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.143939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112994, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060046, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01026, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.584037, "energy": 82.445835, "activity_lines": [ 108.162, 101.184727, 89.390191, 82.270731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.220001, "volume": 9724367, "typical_volume": 7767317.1, "trend": 73.414667, "fair_value": 26.379755, "relative_strength": 93.870224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.043871, "energy": 58.20119, "activity_lines": [ 104.656667, 101.768727, 90.977857, 83.952817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 80.900002, "volume": 11753364, "typical_volume": 7929071.6, "trend": 75.104, "fair_value": 26.797539, "relative_strength": 56.91052, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.630017, "energy": 29.110869, "activity_lines": [ 95.995334, 98.914546, 90.872096, 84.435742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.769997, "volume": 7754466, "typical_volume": 7865238.2, "trend": 76.674, "fair_value": 27.209025, "relative_strength": 53.509386, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.296602, "energy": 22.437261, "activity_lines": [ 88.877333, 95.744909, 90.576572, 84.736774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.75, "volume": 5640250, "typical_volume": 7760700.75, "trend": 78.367667, "fair_value": 27.662859, "relative_strength": 54.888869, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.175311, "energy": 26.057557, "activity_lines": [ 86.266666, 93.854545, 90.850952, 85.386839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }