{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a51df1c-af68-4357-bb61-4485c0cadbc5", "symbol": "002930", "name": "Great River Smart Logistics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.877, "architecture_energy": 69.319, "architecture_maturity": 29.506, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.68, "rotation_up": 19.14, "upward_expansion": 15.53, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 59.67, "downward_expansion": 86.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.520667, 8.816545, 10.224714, 11.049656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.9, "trend_reference": 11.735333, "distance_from_trend": -0.241607, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.987385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.277674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.24384, "excess_performance": -0.25124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241607, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059744, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.467955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252777, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24384, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.220504, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44328308, "relative_activity": 0.796183, "balance": 0.220504, "dry_up": 0.895121, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151513, "annualized_volatility": 0.601325, "from_high_reference": -0.472749, "from_low_reference": 0.164921 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.735333, "fair_value_reference": 12.987385, "structural_low": 7.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.006293, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.024705, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.206687, "worst_return": -0.118574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022351, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075509, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25395, "worst_return": -0.254109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.13984, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.057599, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.239188, "worst_return": -0.391439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 74.970449, "activity_lines": [ 8.965333, 9.647455, 11.200286, 11.717484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.98, "volume": 52157486, "typical_volume": 59618464.45, "trend": 11.900333, "fair_value": 13.160083, "relative_strength": -31.695241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.855635, "energy": 72.254354, "activity_lines": [ 8.577333, 9.162545, 10.803571, 11.456753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.5, "volume": 42219796, "typical_volume": 56401398.85, "trend": 11.809667, "fair_value": 13.072269, "relative_strength": -25.473891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.300781, "energy": 67.685343, "activity_lines": [ 8.451333, 8.902545, 10.481905, 11.237376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.9, "volume": 44328308, "typical_volume": 55676031.8, "trend": 11.735333, "fair_value": 12.987385, "relative_strength": -25.277674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.877184, "energy": 69.319337, "activity_lines": [ 8.520667, 8.816545, 10.224714, 11.049656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }