{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4a5a5f99-a071-4ac7-9dbb-0f72473046a7",
    "symbol": "CT2B",
    "name": "iShares Smart City Infrastructure UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "AMS",
    "country": "NL",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AEX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 56.236,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 31.742,
    "architecture_energy": 22.096,
    "architecture_maturity": 62.153,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.843,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.27,
        "rotation_up": 25.06,
        "upward_expansion": 48.1,
        "deceleration": 84.66,
        "rotation_down": 38.33,
        "downward_expansion": 30.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        9.697667,
        9.726817,
        9.778041,
        9.65776
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.006,
    "trend_reference": 9.491451,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.054212,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 7.687425,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.301606,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -1.726228,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.102845,
    "excess_performance": -0.013818,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054212,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044204,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.301606,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.054924,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.017262,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.103095,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.102845,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.078746,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2959,
      "relative_activity": 0.187158,
      "balance": 0.078746,
      "dry_up": 0.321976,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.023739,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.172614,
      "from_high_reference": -0.026116,
      "from_low_reference": 0.23344
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.491451,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.687425,
      "structural_low": 8.4999,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.010956,
        "positive_rate": 0.444444,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": -1.7e-05,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.127157,
        "worst_return": -0.065789,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.054925,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027722,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.136438,
        "worst_return": 0.008359,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.081162,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017383,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": 0.049656,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.139084,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.055106,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.195385,
        "worst_return": 0.082784,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.021937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.041736,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.035808,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.050961,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.056412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.013191,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": -1.781655,
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        "energy": 24.991397,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 18088.35,
        "trend": 9.395588,
        "fair_value": 7.622422,
        "relative_strength": -4.865524,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 21.56993,
        "energy": 22.243733,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 9.505,
        "volume": 748,
        "typical_volume": 15986.6,
        "trend": 9.423004,
        "fair_value": 7.642379,
        "relative_strength": -4.976138,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 0.012796,
        "energy": 14.648115,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.512,
        "volume": 334,
        "typical_volume": 15735.0,
        "trend": 9.451051,
        "fair_value": 7.662984,
        "relative_strength": -5.606364,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -3.156543,
        "energy": 21.091167,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.574533,
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          9.621957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.006,
        "volume": 2959,
        "typical_volume": 15810.2,
        "trend": 9.491451,
        "fair_value": 7.687425,
        "relative_strength": -1.726228,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.742268,
        "energy": 22.095822,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}