{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a5acba9-aff1-4d29-8628-30d65c70150f", "symbol": "BDMS", "name": "Bangkok Dusit Medical Services Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.301, "architecture_energy": 37.389, "architecture_maturity": 25.938, "architecture_confidence": 56.705, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.75, "rotation_up": 60.67, "upward_expansion": 49.98, "deceleration": 43.52, "rotation_down": 21.74, "downward_expansion": 10.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.533334, 19.38, 18.987143, 18.976382 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.1, "trend_reference": 19.064818, "distance_from_trend": 0.054298, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.368805, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101427, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.3296, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.004578, "excess_performance": -0.196903, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054298, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101427, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095284, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094734, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004578, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.146707, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 422231500, "relative_activity": 1.916187, "balance": 1.146707, "dry_up": 1.272733, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03253, "annualized_volatility": 0.244491, "from_high_reference": -0.075966, "from_low_reference": 0.19565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.064818, "fair_value_reference": 22.368805, "structural_low": 17.777083, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.017094, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014997, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.058155, "worst_return": -0.110806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.148444, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.167504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031124, "worst_return": -0.162393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.085626, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025994, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006034, "worst_return": -0.165217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 19.6, "volume": 391152900, "typical_volume": 265563422.35, "trend": 18.964028, "fair_value": 22.528035, "relative_strength": -14.187957, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.883927, "energy": 45.295905, "activity_lines": [ 19.313333, 18.878182, 18.698406, 18.849854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 224419400, "typical_volume": 253028867.35, "trend": 18.986258, "fair_value": 22.49003, "relative_strength": -14.104305, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.465874, "energy": 60.131008, "activity_lines": [ 19.553334, 19.072727, 18.78881, 18.897336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.9, "volume": 333077300, "typical_volume": 238331292.35, "trend": 18.985043, "fair_value": 22.445455, "relative_strength": -17.270058, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.961778, "energy": 49.057464, "activity_lines": [ 19.413334, 19.098182, 18.809048, 18.891771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.200001, "volume": 142057500, "typical_volume": 217162317.35, "trend": 19.003489, "fair_value": 22.405687, "relative_strength": -14.477667, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.822575, "energy": 28.571255, "activity_lines": [ 19.333334, 19.167273, 18.856191, 18.90564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.1, "volume": 422231500, "typical_volume": 220349807.35, "trend": 19.064818, "fair_value": 22.368805, "relative_strength": -9.3296, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.30128, "energy": 37.389215, "activity_lines": [ 19.533334, 19.38, 18.987143, 18.976382 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }