{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a63770a-a528-49dd-9e14-c515c3918051", "symbol": "SYNT", "name": "SyntheticMR AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.165, "architecture_energy": 44.474, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.212, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.11, "rotation_up": 26.57, "upward_expansion": 6.89, "deceleration": 58.42, "rotation_down": 45.49, "downward_expansion": 77.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.6288, 0.635309, 0.725743, 0.791359 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.65, "trend_reference": 0.891067, "distance_from_trend": -0.270537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.774213, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.939671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -61.469058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.439655, "excess_performance": -0.50115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.270537, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260495, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.939671, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.614691, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.439655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.03234, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 395784, "relative_activity": 1.305515, "balance": 1.03234, "dry_up": 1.021801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19787, "annualized_volatility": 0.643949, "from_high_reference": -0.832905, "from_low_reference": 0.525822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.891067, "fair_value_reference": 10.774213, "structural_low": 0.426, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.045677, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.051281, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.282528, "worst_return": -0.627691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.053991, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.079611, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.634286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.220354, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.215788, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.235955, "worst_return": -0.72, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073643, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066421, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052632, 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-65.157043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.455828, "energy": 61.972914, "activity_lines": [ 0.629733, 0.674582, 0.785562, 0.851808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.59, "volume": 159072, "typical_volume": 315370.5, "trend": 0.93515, "fair_value": 11.062162, "relative_strength": -66.983863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.210491, "energy": 60.342824, "activity_lines": [ 0.6176, 0.650909, 0.761267, 0.827927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.63, "volume": 301654, "typical_volume": 285994.0, "trend": 0.91165, "fair_value": 10.916201, "relative_strength": -63.57163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.137899, "energy": 49.258316, "activity_lines": [ 0.6192, 0.640145, 0.742029, 0.80824 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.65, "volume": 395784, "typical_volume": 303163.1, "trend": 0.891067, "fair_value": 10.774213, "relative_strength": -61.469058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.165113, "energy": 44.473821, "activity_lines": [ 0.6288, 0.635309, 0.725743, 0.791359 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }