{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a685f1b-244e-4850-ba57-13af52aad77b", "symbol": "UGP", "name": "Ultrapar Participacoes SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.854, "architecture_energy": 80.375, "architecture_maturity": 14.577, "architecture_confidence": 81.675, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.72, "rotation_up": 76.72, "upward_expansion": 92.02, "deceleration": 44.69, "rotation_down": 8.09, "downward_expansion": 18.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.292667, 5.910727, 5.705571, 5.601591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.12, "trend_reference": 5.405333, "distance_from_trend": 0.132215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.974174, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.539943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.94569, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.202358, "excess_performance": 0.076733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.132215, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.539943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074502, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.169457, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.202358, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.315186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14871114, "relative_activity": 0.897565, "balance": 1.315186, "dry_up": 1.353656, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070142, "annualized_volatility": 0.391705, "from_high_reference": -0.070686, "from_low_reference": 1.173291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.405333, "fair_value_reference": 3.974174, "structural_low": 4.62, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.036555, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.008458, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.210162, "worst_return": -0.146597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.118261, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.08062, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.364549, "worst_return": -0.238738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.309309, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.217454, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.388769, "worst_return": -0.278284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 19996007, "typical_volume": 14951221.55, "trend": 5.068, "fair_value": 3.898872, "relative_strength": 22.945673, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.183141, "energy": 21.166583, "activity_lines": [ 5.31, 5.232, 5.387429, 5.311118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.25, "volume": 41827089, "typical_volume": 16560252.8, "trend": 5.153667, "fair_value": 3.916794, "relative_strength": 28.49902, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.680932, "energy": 46.21969, "activity_lines": [ 5.678667, 5.4, 5.469429, 5.387376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.43, "volume": 18394205, "typical_volume": 16673422.0, "trend": 5.243333, "fair_value": 3.93587, "relative_strength": 31.34592, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.238967, "energy": 63.924516, "activity_lines": [ 6.016667, 5.598182, 5.562857, 5.46972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.5, "volume": 14618628, "typical_volume": 16564298.2, "trend": 5.332667, "fair_value": 3.955902, "relative_strength": 29.817498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.965194, "energy": 84.221013, "activity_lines": [ 6.269333, 5.796364, 5.656095, 5.550796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.12, "volume": 14871114, "typical_volume": 16568282.9, "trend": 5.405333, "fair_value": 3.974174, "relative_strength": 16.94569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.853919, "energy": 80.37457, "activity_lines": [ 6.292667, 5.910727, 5.705571, 5.601591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }