{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a6e1cd9-565d-4f55-8a49-cdd9dc0e6dc7", "symbol": "MVST", "name": "Microvast Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.72, "architecture_energy": 68.809, "architecture_maturity": 74.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.265, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.66, "rotation_up": 18.92, "upward_expansion": 14.34, "deceleration": 42.66, "rotation_down": 66.58, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.86886, 0.961444, 1.190726, 1.384141 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.906, "trend_reference": 1.70651, "distance_from_trend": -0.469092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.770718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.488343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.756257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.641897, "excess_performance": -0.829351, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.469092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.488343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.647479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.697563, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.253392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.641897, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.669836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36566064, "relative_activity": 1.633623, "balance": 0.669836, "dry_up": 1.334337, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.308473, "annualized_volatility": 0.977669, "from_high_reference": -0.872753, "from_low_reference": 0.272472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.70651, "fair_value_reference": 1.770718, "structural_low": 0.712, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.124006, "positive_rate": 0.341463, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": -0.144421, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 2.985317, "worst_return": -0.367929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.278613, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.30652, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 1.638889, "worst_return": -0.574648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.421459, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.396538, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.032629, "worst_return": -0.707891, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.726058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.259843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019139, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.536364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.377644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"direction": -77.243723, "energy": 70.729631, "activity_lines": [ 0.944593, 1.062907, 1.300914, 1.509299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8071, "volume": 23219844, "typical_volume": 24093414.9, "trend": 1.792977, "fair_value": 1.778179, "relative_strength": -72.17568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.364709, "energy": 72.523494, "activity_lines": [ 0.880147, 0.997249, 1.237722, 1.441365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.906, "volume": 36566064, "typical_volume": 22383415.35, "trend": 1.70651, "fair_value": 1.770718, "relative_strength": -69.756257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.719608, "energy": 68.808776, "activity_lines": [ 0.86886, 0.961444, 1.190726, 1.384141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }