{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a70b7e2-4160-4701-a9b9-6fa0978d53da", "symbol": "9067", "name": "iShares Hang Seng TECH ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.976, "architecture_energy": 16.209, "architecture_maturity": 95.078, "architecture_confidence": 65.066, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.88, "rotation_up": 36.36, "upward_expansion": 22.23, "deceleration": 40.52, "rotation_down": 20.39, "downward_expansion": 53.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.2824, 1.258873, 1.2724, 1.290723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.308, "trend_reference": 1.3328, "distance_from_trend": -0.018607, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.239011, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.032543, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.090403, "excess_performance": -0.056822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018607, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065997, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066423, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.090325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015145, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.018583, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1667100, "relative_activity": 1.493273, "balance": 1.018583, "dry_up": 1.331596, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051753, "annualized_volatility": 0.221271, "from_high_reference": -0.276916, "from_low_reference": 0.149385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.3328, "fair_value_reference": 1.239011, "structural_low": 1.138, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.009524, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.005638, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.202299, "worst_return": -0.13211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04381, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.060947, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.167447, "worst_return": -0.255814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001155, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025977, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.176982, "worst_return": -0.176672, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 1.244, "volume": 1146600, "typical_volume": 1034628.75, "trend": 1.356867, "fair_value": 1.236805, "relative_strength": -10.520702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.735425, "energy": 42.749044, "activity_lines": [ 1.229867, 1.243236, 1.272895, 1.303148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.244, "volume": 2180511, "typical_volume": 1080254.3, "trend": 1.349, "fair_value": 1.237191, "relative_strength": -11.606737, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.173809, "energy": 31.988987, "activity_lines": [ 1.237733, 1.240036, 1.268467, 1.295867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.302, "volume": 952200, "typical_volume": 1076431.8, "trend": 1.340733, "fair_value": 1.237873, "relative_strength": -10.436832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.459723, "energy": 17.821727, "activity_lines": [ 1.264267, 1.248873, 1.270057, 1.292834 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.308, "volume": 1667100, "typical_volume": 1116406.8, "trend": 1.3328, "fair_value": 1.239011, "relative_strength": -9.032543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.976276, "energy": 16.208665, "activity_lines": [ 1.2824, 1.258873, 1.2724, 1.290723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }