{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a7261d8-b64d-4775-a8fb-c1e29fb61f61", "symbol": "600621", "name": "Shanghai Chinafortune Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.324, "architecture_energy": 23.823, "architecture_maturity": 81.912, "architecture_confidence": 69.286, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.28, "rotation_up": 25.78, "upward_expansion": 19.02, "deceleration": 46.45, "rotation_down": 29.1, "downward_expansion": 55.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.119078, 13.036926, 13.193132, 13.621365 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 13.21, "trend_reference": 14.317123, "distance_from_trend": -0.077329, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.133021, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.06531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.94249, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.205652, "excess_performance": -0.162449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077329, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058311, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.06531, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119425, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035924, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.205652, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.174903, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36692882, "relative_activity": 0.722673, "balance": 1.174903, "dry_up": 1.239771, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060085, "annualized_volatility": 0.21745, "from_high_reference": -0.313902, "from_low_reference": 0.103592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.317123, "fair_value_reference": 14.133021, "structural_low": 11.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.011448, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.003202, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.33707, "worst_return": -0.138245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.13908, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.088726, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.283337, "worst_return": -0.257403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.177103, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.092697, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.275137, "worst_return": -0.331053, "sufficient": true 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"Developing", "return": 0.043279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032234, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 11.573709, "volume": 80666953, "typical_volume": 38336059.65, "trend": 11.040768, "fair_value": 13.920824, "relative_strength": 0.734185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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"activity_lines": [ 13.142478, 13.011701, 13.372935, 13.897762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.674398, "volume": 64900722, "typical_volume": 53004912.8, "trend": 14.452123, "fair_value": 14.100896, "relative_strength": -13.562947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.240513, "energy": 32.152532, "activity_lines": [ 13.023992, 12.936878, 13.266215, 13.777939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.2, "volume": 42242937, "typical_volume": 52294284.0, "trend": 14.384789, "fair_value": 14.116611, "relative_strength": -9.979973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.745984, "energy": 25.461379, "activity_lines": [ 13.08508, 12.98172, 13.224007, 13.697157 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.21, "volume": 36692882, "typical_volume": 50773827.05, "trend": 14.317123, "fair_value": 14.133021, "relative_strength": -11.94249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.324411, "energy": 23.823022, "activity_lines": [ 13.119078, 13.036926, 13.193132, 13.621365 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }