{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a750e56-f2b8-4d18-8630-245484797696", "symbol": "300513", "name": "Beijing E-Techstar Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.249, "architecture_energy": 56.06, "architecture_maturity": 76.549, "architecture_confidence": 94.771, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 24.14, "upward_expansion": 9.4, "deceleration": 60.18, "rotation_down": 56.32, "downward_expansion": 82.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.888667, 6.979273, 7.525714, 7.964559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.17, "trend_reference": 8.595333, "distance_from_trend": -0.165826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.390226, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.480555, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.247639, "excess_performance": -0.255039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09754, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23644, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178422, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051345, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.247639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.276074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35400005, "relative_activity": 1.297509, "balance": 0.276074, "dry_up": 1.229499, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087115, "annualized_volatility": 0.329998, "from_high_reference": -0.364925, "from_low_reference": 0.179276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.595333, "fair_value_reference": 9.390226, "structural_low": 6.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013934, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.010656, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.268135, "worst_return": -0.191919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.09248, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.028933, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.234333, "worst_return": -0.208925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.035206, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.098895, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.280374, "worst_return": -0.182421, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 6.84, "volume": 30115215, "typical_volume": 29392586.0, "trend": 8.894667, "fair_value": 9.522246, "relative_strength": -25.970989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.608853, "energy": 83.869192, "activity_lines": [ 7.014, 7.317636, 7.920619, 8.343097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.45, "volume": 39142802, "typical_volume": 29170956.7, "trend": 8.77, "fair_value": 9.476655, "relative_strength": -29.840545, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.406444, "energy": 71.941127, "activity_lines": [ 6.806667, 7.091818, 7.738333, 8.185376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.85, "volume": 29519924, "typical_volume": 27622223.75, "trend": 8.672667, "fair_value": 9.43216, "relative_strength": -23.725476, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.298034, "energy": 63.201256, "activity_lines": [ 6.790667, 6.986727, 7.609667, 8.061505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.17, "volume": 35400005, "typical_volume": 27283061.3, "trend": 8.595333, "fair_value": 9.390226, "relative_strength": -23.480555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.24919, "energy": 56.059749, "activity_lines": [ 6.888667, 6.979273, 7.525714, 7.964559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }