{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a77a291-f6d4-4bc6-a6db-51d3fb96a84f", "symbol": "C1GP34", "name": "CoStar Group, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.683, "architecture_energy": 59.815, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.971, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 29.49, "upward_expansion": 11.03, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 51.77, "downward_expansion": 84.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.496, 1.513091, 1.585762, 1.746473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.58, "trend_reference": 2.082, "distance_from_trend": -0.241114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.851795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.589802, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -50.318214, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.515337, "excess_performance": -0.458289, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251169, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.589802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011121, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.503182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138706, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.515337, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.019377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 162564, "relative_activity": 3.05009, "balance": 4.019377, "dry_up": 2.62568, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078384, "annualized_volatility": 0.660085, "from_high_reference": -0.696154, "from_low_reference": 0.161765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.082, "fair_value_reference": 3.851795, "structural_low": 1.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.005525, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.041665, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.127148, "worst_return": -0.217791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.116531, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01189, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.233677, "worst_return": -0.348066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.057307, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.009826, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.491409, "worst_return": -0.525281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.200542, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.140908, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.357388, "worst_return": -0.594724, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08747, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004525, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055427, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102881, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.07277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118503, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055156, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002114, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036965, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100251, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.563536, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.89, "volume": 38, "typical_volume": 81361.45, "trend": 3.857333, "fair_value": 4.059722, "relative_strength": -4.564768, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.952418, "energy": 26.920692, "activity_lines": [ 3.918, 4.031636, 4.009762, 3.925032 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 3.88, "volume": 71, "typical_volume": 71083.85, "trend": 3.854667, "fair_value": 4.058483, "relative_strength": -5.240609, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.023516, "energy": 21.14495, "activity_lines": [ 3.885333, 3.993636, 4.006333, 3.926495 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 4.07, "volume": 609, "typical_volume": 60826.9, "trend": 3.856, "fair_value": 4.058562, "relative_strength": -2.437869, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.721529, "energy": 11.799228, "activity_lines": [ 3.948667, 3.992909, 4.018952, 3.940387 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 4.14, "volume": 96, "typical_volume": 52621.75, "trend": 3.862667, "fair_value": 4.059116, 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-79.296569, "energy": 70.496509, "activity_lines": [ 1.481333, 1.530909, 1.627333, 1.831097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.45, "volume": 176632, "typical_volume": 45188.6, "trend": 2.135333, "fair_value": 3.866859, "relative_strength": -57.113124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.846737, "energy": 67.016158, "activity_lines": [ 1.463333, 1.508, 1.598238, 1.782301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.58, "volume": 162564, "typical_volume": 53298.1, "trend": 2.082, "fair_value": 3.851795, "relative_strength": -50.318214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.682744, "energy": 59.814617, "activity_lines": [ 1.496, 1.513091, 1.585762, 1.746473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }