{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a81e94d-79c1-4b4b-8633-f8499972b8e3", "symbol": "ATS", "name": "AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.73, "architecture_energy": 28.867, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.545, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.6, "rotation_up": 22.58, "upward_expansion": 57.19, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 34.06, "downward_expansion": 20.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 148.680002, 164.492728, 151.502381, 130.394947 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 143.600006, "trend_reference": 102.605, "distance_from_trend": 0.399542, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.441282, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.940586, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 79.504281, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.849206, "excess_performance": 1.67496, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.399542, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.820583, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.940586, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038401, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.795043, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.719881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.849206, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.939274, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 796260, "relative_activity": 1.18003, "balance": 0.939274, "dry_up": 1.090478, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.221073, "annualized_volatility": 0.956971, "from_high_reference": -0.378355, "from_low_reference": 6.838428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 102.605, "fair_value_reference": 36.441282, "structural_low": 40.799999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.009036, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028857, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.326291, "worst_return": -0.081604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.273418, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.30104, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.431925, "worst_return": 0.200553, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.374827, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.403511, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.272301, "worst_return": -0.324068, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.259364, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.442192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.259364, "worst_return": 0.259364, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038809, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021801, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.218432, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.223164, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045744, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039445, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.184814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"2026-07-17", "close": 162.0, "volume": 579574, "typical_volume": 659178.05, "trend": 91.373333, "fair_value": 34.299103, "relative_strength": 131.445336, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.337214, "energy": 64.16928, "activity_lines": [ 185.14, 176.698182, 144.930238, 120.865269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 158.600006, "volume": 535069, "typical_volume": 644977.4, "trend": 95.615, "fair_value": 35.10359, "relative_strength": 115.878169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.459444, "energy": 49.713757, "activity_lines": [ 173.306669, 175.896365, 148.949048, 125.202473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 131.399994, "volume": 1032427, "typical_volume": 668993.05, "trend": 98.901666, "fair_value": 35.727692, "relative_strength": 73.979833, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.629843, "energy": 26.700455, "activity_lines": [ 156.9, 169.090909, 149.837619, 127.511183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 143.600006, "volume": 796260, "typical_volume": 674779.5, "trend": 102.605, "fair_value": 36.441282, "relative_strength": 79.504281, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.729738, "energy": 28.866894, "activity_lines": [ 148.680002, 164.492728, 151.502381, 130.394947 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }