{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a827cb5-7933-4576-905b-1809c40e88f1", "symbol": "ABDN", "name": "Aberdeen Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.882, "architecture_energy": 40.204, "architecture_maturity": 62.14, "architecture_confidence": 72.485, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.51, "rotation_up": 47.61, "upward_expansion": 78.51, "deceleration": 67.51, "rotation_down": 25.81, "downward_expansion": 5.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 247.906667, 246.829091, 240.503333, 232.313407 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 252.6, "trend_reference": 224.307289, "distance_from_trend": 0.126134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 177.244809, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.425148, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.240953, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.167695, "excess_performance": 0.116459, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067959, "read": "Rising" 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179.600006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.003381, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.016233, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.103728, "worst_return": -0.306347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.063425, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.036758, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.131658, "worst_return": -0.353476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056724, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.051163, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.1614, "worst_return": -0.235011, "sufficient": false }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 64.004141, "energy": 51.242239, "activity_lines": [ 248.133333, 245.338182, 234.2504, 227.366775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 248.4, "volume": 22184882, "typical_volume": 19999152.15, "trend": 221.769051, "fair_value": 176.685029, "relative_strength": 9.220763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.46417, "energy": 51.414547, "activity_lines": [ 249.2, 246.145454, 236.642992, 229.180969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 240.6, "volume": 36053449, "typical_volume": 20692485.8, "trend": 222.878156, "fair_value": 176.821274, "relative_strength": 4.441324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.292934, "energy": 38.557851, "activity_lines": [ 246.706667, 245.338182, 238.091428, 230.395869 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 252.6, "volume": 28898199, "typical_volume": 20386638.9, "trend": 224.307289, "fair_value": 177.244809, "relative_strength": 9.240953, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.88181, "energy": 40.203844, "activity_lines": [ 247.906667, 246.829091, 240.503333, 232.313407 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }