{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a891d77-9dfa-4d99-81f7-1d187c0cf6fb", "symbol": "TEN", "name": "Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.961, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.149, "architecture_energy": 21.073, "architecture_maturity": 31.671, "architecture_confidence": 65.541, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.71, "rotation_up": 48.31, "upward_expansion": 66.39, "deceleration": 59.88, "rotation_down": 18.7, "downward_expansion": 12.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.09587, 38.338638, 38.822878, 38.220886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.14, "trend_reference": 36.23693, "distance_from_trend": 0.080114, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.024172, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.699953, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.066994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.476165, "excess_performance": 0.35054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080114, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157162, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.699953, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.378658, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.16067, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397378, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.476165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.719133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 965740, "relative_activity": 0.640015, "balance": 0.719133, "dry_up": 0.654093, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087628, "annualized_volatility": 0.393421, "from_high_reference": -0.146347, "from_low_reference": 1.069347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.23693, "fair_value_reference": 23.024172, "structural_low": 26.514657, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.089834, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.069971, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.342346, "worst_return": -0.144295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.124537, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.081735, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.729742, "worst_return": -0.298828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.214998, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035187, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.725483, "worst_return": -0.295825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.706808, "energy": 13.761152, "activity_lines": [ 37.337942, 37.952114, 38.75986, 37.198796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.689503, "volume": 1033689, "typical_volume": 1941294.55, "trend": 34.558772, "fair_value": 22.59084, "relative_strength": 16.616981, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.024628, "energy": 10.847686, "activity_lines": [ 37.097814, 37.521306, 38.594672, 37.368622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.4, "volume": 1210991, "typical_volume": 1829402.65, "trend": 35.135314, "fair_value": 22.739395, "relative_strength": 24.628292, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.271051, "energy": 14.191775, "activity_lines": [ 37.899886, 37.712599, 38.681011, 37.68096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.12, "volume": 737507, "typical_volume": 1584717.8, "trend": 35.755832, "fair_value": 22.886273, "relative_strength": 24.229143, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.701402, "energy": 23.007256, "activity_lines": [ 38.804819, 38.092073, 38.813778, 38.002552 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.14, "volume": 965740, "typical_volume": 1508932.5, "trend": 36.23693, "fair_value": 23.024172, "relative_strength": 16.066994, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.14888, "energy": 21.0726, "activity_lines": [ 39.09587, 38.338638, 38.822878, 38.220886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }