{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a89d91f-84f1-4cb1-9c81-d1a248d91d7d", "symbol": "002668", "name": "Guangdong TCL Smart Home Appliances Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.982, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.056, "architecture_energy": 32.307, "architecture_maturity": 36.509, "architecture_confidence": 54.459, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.16, "rotation_up": 42.71, "upward_expansion": 70.33, "deceleration": 70.72, "rotation_down": 23.66, "downward_expansion": 8.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.436, 10.408545, 10.085447, 9.88997 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.68, "trend_reference": 9.749614, "distance_from_trend": 0.095428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.450954, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130045, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.657242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08336, "excess_performance": 0.07596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009983, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064946, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036572, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231075, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08336, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.218052, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116772219, "relative_activity": 1.850968, "balance": 1.218052, "dry_up": 1.644295, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072728, "annualized_volatility": 0.251872, "from_high_reference": -0.064371, "from_low_reference": 0.275957 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.749614, "fair_value_reference": 9.450954, "structural_low": 8.370185, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.001063, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.161588, "worst_return": -0.125329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.043988, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.05834, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.412621, "worst_return": -0.169742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.2094, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.233262, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.514443, "worst_return": -0.236055, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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9.92, "volume": 90696246, "typical_volume": 59380216.35, "trend": 9.74423, "fair_value": 9.416156, "relative_strength": -0.596364, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.201494, "energy": 64.305004, "activity_lines": [ 10.402667, 10.17609, 9.847298, 9.747071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.14, "volume": 109445532, "typical_volume": 61044502.05, "trend": 9.728496, "fair_value": 9.426372, "relative_strength": 1.469455, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.195895, "energy": 36.155928, "activity_lines": [ 10.306667, 10.206909, 9.898763, 9.772605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.6, "volume": 98021350, "typical_volume": 60424607.6, "trend": 9.732337, "fair_value": 9.437591, "relative_strength": 7.926383, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.84571, "energy": 32.722025, "activity_lines": [ 10.344667, 10.310545, 9.991157, 9.828831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.68, "volume": 116772219, "typical_volume": 63087121.85, "trend": 9.749614, "fair_value": 9.450954, "relative_strength": 3.657242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.055692, "energy": 32.307168, "activity_lines": [ 10.436, 10.408545, 10.085447, 9.88997 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }