{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a8bf9ea-9b62-478a-8875-cd06a080c6cf", "symbol": "SBSP3", "name": "Companhia de Saneamento B\u00e1sico do Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo - SABESP", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.637, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.78, "architecture_energy": 58.522, "architecture_maturity": 15.176, "architecture_confidence": 85.561, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.24, "rotation_up": 17.3, "upward_expansion": 15.87, "deceleration": 34.19, "rotation_down": 63.46, "downward_expansion": 82.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.995999, 28.545272, 29.088562, 29.483231 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.889999, "trend_reference": 29.539801, "distance_from_trend": -0.089703, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.853977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.354389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.525646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0587, "excess_performance": -0.001651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026272, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.354389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346971, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.055256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089883, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.171042, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 55477500, "relative_activity": 0.95275, "balance": 0.171042, "dry_up": 1.086307, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064451, "annualized_volatility": 0.300163, "from_high_reference": -0.238632, "from_low_reference": 0.303426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.539801, "fair_value_reference": 19.853977, "structural_low": 26.610001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067808, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.050536, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.193446, "worst_return": -0.044891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.114792, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.0686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288889, "worst_return": -0.063639, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.196713, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.131297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.363876, "worst_return": 0.053397, "sufficient": 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28.903334, 28.703455, 29.802753, 29.710391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.110001, "volume": 49321000, "typical_volume": 61700874.0, "trend": 29.298447, "fair_value": 19.38994, "relative_strength": 6.293909, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.262015, "energy": 20.481751, "activity_lines": [ 29.819334, 29.059273, 29.890338, 29.838502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.219999, "volume": 43570300, "typical_volume": 60091576.3, "trend": 29.412837, "fair_value": 19.513586, "relative_strength": 2.08827, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.634363, "energy": 17.647221, "activity_lines": [ 29.854, 29.108546, 29.79456, 29.833441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.379999, "volume": 73589800, "typical_volume": 59986483.75, "trend": 29.47148, "fair_value": 19.630165, "relative_strength": -1.158574, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.928746, "energy": 15.776188, "activity_lines": [ 29.496666, 29.039818, 29.625167, 29.766806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.7, "volume": 80380000, "typical_volume": 60519556.25, "trend": 29.513944, "fair_value": 19.746339, "relative_strength": -5.672941, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.699706, "energy": 16.699436, "activity_lines": [ 28.818, 28.859273, 29.392762, 29.652517 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.889999, "volume": 55477500, "typical_volume": 58228825.0, "trend": 29.539801, "fair_value": 19.853977, "relative_strength": -5.525646, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.780203, "energy": 58.522093, "activity_lines": [ 27.995999, 28.545272, 29.088562, 29.483231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }