{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a8f6e77-0d7d-4a6a-94a4-2b9234c81ee3", "symbol": "CGNR", "name": "Conroy Gold and Natural Resources plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.618, "architecture_energy": 54.833, "architecture_maturity": 51.655, "architecture_confidence": 90.671, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.21, "rotation_up": 22.79, "upward_expansion": 8.91, "deceleration": 56.39, "rotation_down": 57.24, "downward_expansion": 82.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.079167, 0.081791, 0.090933, 0.099852 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0775, "trend_reference": 0.113933, "distance_from_trend": -0.319778, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.087106, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.232765, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.551235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.319778, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110277, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332328, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.42908, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.517743, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221649, "relative_activity": 1.186785, "balance": 1.517743, "dry_up": 1.004236, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.163424, "annualized_volatility": 0.426461, "from_high_reference": -0.530303, "from_low_reference": 0.635021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.113933, "fair_value_reference": 0.087106, "structural_low": 0.069, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.69697, "median_excess_return": -0.052609, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.370787, "worst_return": -0.321429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.103448, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.097941, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.241379, "worst_return": -0.378947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008696, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.002013, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 3.310345, "worst_return": -0.389474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.169372, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.183459, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.566038, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.303483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.296296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.389474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.454545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.290323, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.08, "volume": 177631, "typical_volume": 241013.85, "trend": 0.1166, "fair_value": 0.088163, "relative_strength": -28.743637, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.190913, "energy": 83.354717, "activity_lines": [ 0.081333, 0.088727, 0.097548, 0.106962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.08, "volume": 231487, "typical_volume": 216279.65, "trend": 0.115933, "fair_value": 0.087827, "relative_strength": -29.791139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.98462, "energy": 78.860545, "activity_lines": [ 0.08, 0.086127, 0.095129, 0.104601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.08, "volume": 119455, "typical_volume": 208117.0, "trend": 0.115183, "fair_value": 0.087474, "relative_strength": -30.771223, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.421399, "energy": 61.43974, "activity_lines": [ 0.079833, 0.083936, 0.093019, 0.102283 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0775, "volume": 221649, "typical_volume": 186764.3, "trend": 0.113933, "fair_value": 0.087106, "relative_strength": -33.232765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.617993, "energy": 54.833393, "activity_lines": [ 0.079167, 0.081791, 0.090933, 0.099852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }