{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a96c64d-9244-43fa-b414-e7bead0b29e1", "symbol": "600609", "name": "Shenyang Jinbei Automotive Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.951, "architecture_energy": 53.958, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.523, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 28.84, "upward_expansion": 14.44, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 46.64, "downward_expansion": 76.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.226667, 3.232182, 3.427484, 3.638105 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.25, "trend_reference": 3.948732, "distance_from_trend": -0.176951, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.80942, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.324243, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.327135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304064, "excess_performance": -0.260861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176951, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.324243, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304064, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.299718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98726799, "relative_activity": 1.508525, "balance": 0.299718, "dry_up": 1.406351, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069475, "annualized_volatility": 0.222509, "from_high_reference": -0.395398, "from_low_reference": 0.072607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.948732, "fair_value_reference": 4.80942, "structural_low": 3.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.001048, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": -0.026839, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.15099, "worst_return": -0.13838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.018688, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.058526, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.94517, "worst_return": -0.211362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.085393, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.083715, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.626536, "worst_return": -0.181632, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 63701381.35, "trend": 3.993746, "fair_value": 4.82177, "relative_strength": -21.80471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.174838, "energy": 60.809257, "activity_lines": [ 3.213333, 3.242909, 3.466825, 3.686088 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.25, "volume": 98726799, "typical_volume": 65445934.75, "trend": 3.948732, "fair_value": 4.80942, "relative_strength": -24.327135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.951434, "energy": 53.957998, "activity_lines": [ 3.226667, 3.232182, 3.427484, 3.638105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }