{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a9a4aea-12f3-47de-b51e-923b490dc975", "symbol": "IDNTT", "name": "IDNTT SA", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.879, "architecture_energy": 64.284, "architecture_maturity": 11.724, "architecture_confidence": 82.298, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.27, "rotation_up": 65.64, "upward_expansion": 87.18, "deceleration": 46.81, "rotation_down": 13.64, "downward_expansion": 13.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.178667, 3.121818, 3.069714, 2.994151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.18, "trend_reference": 2.9, "distance_from_trend": 0.096552, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.852474, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.114822, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.133661, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.177778, "excess_performance": 0.006886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096552, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051232, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.114822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109249, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011337, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.542056, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15000, "relative_activity": 0.430416, "balance": 4.542056, "dry_up": 2.317073, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047412, "annualized_volatility": 0.228522, "from_high_reference": -0.030488, "from_low_reference": 0.382609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.9, "fair_value_reference": 2.852474, "structural_low": 2.54, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.034682, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.054847, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.129496, "worst_return": -0.093525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007884, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075992, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.10274, "worst_return": -0.065166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.059731, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171432, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.05036, "worst_return": -0.174653, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063694, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03876, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028777, "active": false 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3.08, "volume": 37000, "typical_volume": 26000.0, "trend": 2.858, "fair_value": 2.852308, "relative_strength": -0.874574, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.822938, "energy": 27.334088, "activity_lines": [ 3.033333, 3.044727, 2.994857, 2.928129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.22, "volume": 155000, "typical_volume": 30500.0, "trend": 2.872667, "fair_value": 2.852279, "relative_strength": 3.814482, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.329921, "energy": 46.263796, "activity_lines": [ 3.098667, 3.073455, 3.023333, 2.951484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.24, "volume": 116000, "typical_volume": 35900.0, "trend": 2.886, "fair_value": 2.852888, "relative_strength": 3.716067, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.8421, "energy": 64.214023, "activity_lines": [ 3.157333, 3.104364, 3.050952, 2.975183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.18, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 34850.0, "trend": 2.9, "fair_value": 2.852474, "relative_strength": -1.133661, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.878696, "energy": 64.284228, "activity_lines": [ 3.178667, 3.121818, 3.069714, 2.994151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }