{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a9c507a-3cbb-440d-98de-4b2dc37f9a12", "symbol": "688518", "name": "Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.189, "architecture_energy": 84.18, "architecture_maturity": 27.535, "architecture_confidence": 84.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.36, "rotation_up": 8.11, "upward_expansion": 20.32, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 80.13, "downward_expansion": 95.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.122666, 21.703636, 24.304457, 25.240423 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.08, "trend_reference": 26.567603, "distance_from_trend": -0.244192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.922026, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.951173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323222, "excess_performance": -0.280018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244192, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.41777, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323222, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.503598, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57549423, "relative_activity": 0.85497, "balance": 0.503598, "dry_up": 1.077468, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160849, "annualized_volatility": 0.605973, "from_high_reference": -0.402914, "from_low_reference": 0.237978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.567603, "fair_value_reference": 19.922026, "structural_low": 16.219999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.006019, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.009056, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.286546, "worst_return": -0.177518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.047929, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.029238, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.537559, "worst_return": -0.250138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.135789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059385, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.679473, "worst_return": -0.350161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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27.64726, 27.611195 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.469999, "volume": 21846007, "typical_volume": 59068037.75, "trend": 27.185937, "fair_value": 20.133493, "relative_strength": 3.906741, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.526282, "energy": 10.731959, "activity_lines": [ 27.837334, 27.970332, 27.638602, 27.637134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.450001, "volume": 111805537, "typical_volume": 62847009.45, "trend": 27.187603, "fair_value": 20.118721, "relative_strength": -10.203826, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.369393, "energy": 21.62707, "activity_lines": [ 26.478, 27.112627, 27.258468, 27.396106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.459999, "volume": 90840867, "typical_volume": 65035118.05, "trend": 27.04727, "fair_value": 20.062103, "relative_strength": -24.784946, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.217287, "energy": 71.379845, "activity_lines": [ 23.68, 25.439334, 26.432382, 26.833035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.41, "volume": 79322123, "typical_volume": 66277525.3, "trend": 26.88027, "fair_value": 19.998315, "relative_strength": -29.715459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.463285, "energy": 85.842972, "activity_lines": [ 20.986667, 23.758265, 25.563343, 26.211275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.459999, "volume": 62391890, "typical_volume": 66429283.25, "trend": 26.707937, "fair_value": 19.949797, "relative_strength": -25.50503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.587747, "energy": 87.308293, "activity_lines": [ 19.446, 22.469426, 24.83959, 25.668032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.08, "volume": 57549423, "typical_volume": 67311598.75, "trend": 26.567603, "fair_value": 19.922026, "relative_strength": -20.951173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.189136, "energy": 84.179822, "activity_lines": [ 19.122666, 21.703636, 24.304457, 25.240423 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }