{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a9e56e9-2aef-476a-8d3d-249e7d2ea58e", "symbol": "SGJP", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.11, "architecture_energy": 27.816, "architecture_maturity": 63.072, "architecture_confidence": 86.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.45, "rotation_up": 31.71, "upward_expansion": 58.46, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 27.25, "downward_expansion": 19.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.2167, 7.2439, 7.156095, 7.029243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.439, "trend_reference": 6.87775, "distance_from_trend": 0.081604, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.622106, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.32317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.527325, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.11546, "excess_performance": 0.064224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052926, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.32317, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039993, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045273, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11546, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.679858, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63705, "relative_activity": 1.231615, "balance": 0.679858, "dry_up": 1.036878, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032861, "annualized_volatility": 0.218246, "from_high_reference": -0.085196, "from_low_reference": 0.298028 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.87775, "fair_value_reference": 5.622106, "structural_low": 6.2, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.013653, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004933, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082553, "worst_return": -0.092997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013407, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006652, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.171431, "worst_return": -0.027947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090976, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.025519, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.15044, "worst_return": -0.028041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.059213, 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"2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016433, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067052, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103874, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072614, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049668, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.434, "volume": 1529, "typical_volume": 7731.7, "trend": 4.543083, "fair_value": 4.892464, "relative_strength": 3.578394, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.927534, 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"energy": 40.805462, "activity_lines": [ 7.2355, 7.238809, 7.0702, 6.950072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.142, "volume": 2201, "typical_volume": 55542.2, "trend": 6.814483, "fair_value": 5.588189, "relative_strength": 2.184769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.059844, "energy": 30.658978, "activity_lines": [ 7.178933, 7.227382, 7.094107, 6.973349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.087, "volume": 137952, "typical_volume": 50441.6, "trend": 6.845167, "fair_value": 5.603914, "relative_strength": 0.036234, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.498944, "energy": 23.229239, "activity_lines": [ 7.130867, 7.204127, 7.109912, 6.990931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.439, "volume": 63705, "typical_volume": 51724.75, "trend": 6.87775, "fair_value": 5.622106, "relative_strength": 4.527325, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.110091, "energy": 27.815582, "activity_lines": [ 7.2167, 7.2439, 7.156095, 7.029243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }