{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4aa75564-cd6b-47ff-957c-4b0f3597f3d4", "symbol": "6283", "name": "Shun On Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.806, "architecture_energy": 75.507, "architecture_maturity": 14.637, "architecture_confidence": 81.462, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.72, "rotation_up": 8.43, "upward_expansion": 16.51, "deceleration": 37.11, "rotation_down": 80.59, "downward_expansion": 94.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.326666, 21.304545, 22.415, 22.421828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.049999, "trend_reference": 22.476667, "distance_from_trend": -0.107964, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.336538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2387, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.415612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.098876, "excess_performance": -0.540248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107964, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2387, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173861, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.414156, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12707, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098876, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522682, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 491000, "relative_activity": 0.329149, "balance": 0.522682, "dry_up": 0.459246, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083829, "annualized_volatility": 0.399599, "from_high_reference": -0.371473, "from_low_reference": 0.06366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.476667, "fair_value_reference": 26.336538, "structural_low": 18.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.043674, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.104167, "worst_return": -0.006349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002534, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025485, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16888, "worst_return": -0.057208, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.13852, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.085925, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139588, "worst_return": 0.072115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009153, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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1523483.2, "trend": 22.973333, "fair_value": 26.570513, "relative_strength": -38.181499, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.634633, "energy": 36.039418, "activity_lines": [ 22.006667, 22.849091, 23.151191, 22.92828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.25, "volume": 1136650, "typical_volume": 1535089.8, "trend": 22.801667, "fair_value": 26.498718, "relative_strength": -38.539182, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.933856, "energy": 51.864783, "activity_lines": [ 21.253334, 22.270909, 22.91, 22.752581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.25, "volume": 429628, "typical_volume": 1507154.9, "trend": 22.625, "fair_value": 26.414103, "relative_strength": -39.391654, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.155158, "energy": 63.542635, "activity_lines": [ 20.693334, 21.771818, 22.671429, 22.587957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 491000, "typical_volume": 1491727.85, "trend": 22.476667, "fair_value": 26.336538, "relative_strength": -41.415612, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.80648, "energy": 75.506651, "activity_lines": [ 20.326666, 21.304545, 22.415, 22.421828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }