{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4aadb74a-b447-4baf-b025-a09109b5e0a3", "symbol": "603758", "name": "Chongqing Qin'an M&E PLC.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.307, "architecture_energy": 53.68, "architecture_maturity": 91.778, "architecture_confidence": 90.151, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 8.93, "deceleration": 60.64, "rotation_down": 49.19, "downward_expansion": 79.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.532667, 9.569636, 10.404333, 11.19686 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.48, "trend_reference": 12.429, "distance_from_trend": -0.156811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.074715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.478037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298527, "excess_performance": -0.255324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0537, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277157, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.236585, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25744642, "relative_activity": 1.384029, "balance": 0.236585, "dry_up": 1.011293, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097035, "annualized_volatility": 0.453539, "from_high_reference": -0.470974, "from_low_reference": 0.249106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.429, "fair_value_reference": 11.074715, "structural_low": 8.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.01482, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.001909, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.208477, "worst_return": -0.21746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008125, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.09449, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.336858, "worst_return": -0.307339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.307051, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.369399, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.14526, "worst_return": -0.213759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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11.09042, "relative_strength": -31.250964, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.777919, "energy": 85.513645, "activity_lines": [ 9.879333, 10.595636, 11.540857, 12.446516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.61, "volume": 28554312, "typical_volume": 18862583.3, "trend": 13.594, "fair_value": 11.088493, "relative_strength": -33.840744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.435096, "energy": 70.256906, "activity_lines": [ 9.738667, 10.295818, 11.28319, 12.169032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.08, "volume": 19533542, "typical_volume": 19144865.0, "trend": 13.281667, "fair_value": 11.083934, "relative_strength": -32.994009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.96816, "energy": 69.196781, "activity_lines": [ 9.500667, 9.947455, 10.99919, 11.877806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.62, "volume": 17206451, "typical_volume": 18903562.85, "trend": 12.953667, "fair_value": 11.074717, "relative_strength": -36.653325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.377056, "energy": 68.942159, "activity_lines": [ 9.184667, 9.594727, 10.698095, 11.577054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.24, "volume": 12760550, "typical_volume": 18246856.0, "trend": 12.659333, "fair_value": 11.069709, "relative_strength": -31.913107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.059913, "energy": 63.287154, "activity_lines": [ 9.158, 9.438909, 10.481714, 11.337462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.48, "volume": 25744642, "typical_volume": 18601227.5, "trend": 12.429, "fair_value": 11.074715, "relative_strength": -24.478037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.306905, "energy": 53.680118, "activity_lines": [ 9.532667, 9.569636, 10.404333, 11.19686 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }