{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ab281ea-5adc-45c5-af95-aff1688051b1", "symbol": "300016", "name": "Beijing Beilu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.847, "architecture_energy": 33.191, "architecture_maturity": 48.929, "architecture_confidence": 63.089, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.77, "rotation_up": 25.47, "upward_expansion": 16.1, "deceleration": 65.67, "rotation_down": 37.2, "downward_expansion": 63.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.947333, 7.884182, 8.186333, 8.609656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.41, "trend_reference": 9.063333, "distance_from_trend": -0.072085, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.169945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.599344, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.14096, "excess_performance": -0.14836, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072085, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016779, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.14096, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.404754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86353078, "relative_activity": 1.019341, "balance": 0.404754, "dry_up": 1.22905, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084057, "annualized_volatility": 0.355705, "from_high_reference": -0.297997, "from_low_reference": 0.176224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.063333, "fair_value_reference": 7.169945, "structural_low": 7.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.036556, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.032775, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.232997, "worst_return": -0.194707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.04519, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": 0.0983, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.485327, "worst_return": -0.115769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032729, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.013358, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.05035, "worst_return": -0.189275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.702975, "energy": 47.843593, "activity_lines": [ 7.764667, 7.790182, 8.312857, 8.731247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.81, "volume": 94867037, "typical_volume": 89036791.05, "trend": 9.047667, "fair_value": 7.157585, "relative_strength": -12.226998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.41862, "energy": 39.893654, "activity_lines": [ 7.775333, 7.774909, 8.214381, 8.650796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.41, "volume": 86353078, "typical_volume": 84714606.35, "trend": 9.063333, "fair_value": 7.169945, "relative_strength": -9.599344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.846619, "energy": 33.190617, "activity_lines": [ 7.947333, 7.884182, 8.186333, 8.609656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }