{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4abe21c9-4abf-4733-a80a-4a14586a9dbf", "symbol": "XPLRA", "name": "Xplora Technologies AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.43, "architecture_energy": 64.353, "architecture_maturity": 46.024, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 24.81, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 51.15, "rotation_down": 58.72, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.55, 37.374545, 41.39, 44.492903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 37.25, "trend_reference": 47.963334, "distance_from_trend": -0.223365, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.040705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.988214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315257, "excess_performance": -0.440251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223365, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077953, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.688689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319882, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315257, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.465206, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 529753, "relative_activity": 1.260725, "balance": 0.465206, "dry_up": 1.055419, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086835, "annualized_volatility": 0.380444, "from_high_reference": -0.383278, "from_low_reference": 0.064286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.963334, "fair_value_reference": 31.040705, "structural_low": 35.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.010019, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005882, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.248337, "worst_return": -0.257002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.11215, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.111805, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.804255, "worst_return": -0.24812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.188, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.188049, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.731915, "worst_return": -0.332443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076389, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.04698, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078067, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.265252, 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-73.578065, "energy": 88.109903, "activity_lines": [ 38.816667, 40.908182, 45.578334, 47.816882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.599998, "volume": 603313, "typical_volume": 621903.35, "trend": 49.361667, "fair_value": 30.519487, "relative_strength": -34.356601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.430762, "energy": 89.693082, "activity_lines": [ 37.616666, 39.48, 44.328095, 46.893764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.349998, "volume": 394726, "typical_volume": 596638.9, "trend": 48.78, "fair_value": 30.685962, "relative_strength": -35.908978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.593971, "energy": 79.697712, "activity_lines": [ 36.659999, 38.335454, 43.159762, 45.989785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.650002, "volume": 246144, "typical_volume": 586740.4, "trend": 48.321667, "fair_value": 30.861026, "relative_strength": -33.381104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.369133, "energy": 76.101489, "activity_lines": [ 36.47, 37.724545, 42.210714, 45.207204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.25, "volume": 529753, "typical_volume": 420196.95, "trend": 47.963334, "fair_value": 31.040705, "relative_strength": -31.988214, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.429679, "energy": 64.353243, "activity_lines": [ 36.55, 37.374545, 41.39, 44.492903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }