{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ac0dc72-8f9c-4a77-9325-641b424dda06", "symbol": "ALAT", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Em Latin America UCITS ETF-C EUR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.683, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.065, "architecture_energy": 28.655, "architecture_maturity": 8.774, "architecture_confidence": 63.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.32, "rotation_up": 58.19, "upward_expansion": 66.98, "deceleration": 53.83, "rotation_down": 8.49, "downward_expansion": 7.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.149334, 20.97088, 20.929113, 20.950222 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.030001, "trend_reference": 20.91655, "distance_from_trend": 0.005424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.453946, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278113, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.095776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002245, "excess_performance": -0.051067, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278113, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071586, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020958, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174545, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002245, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.969015, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115049, "relative_activity": 0.893255, "balance": 0.969015, "dry_up": 1.086127, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028799, "annualized_volatility": 0.196888, "from_high_reference": -0.070809, "from_low_reference": 0.397036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.91655, "fair_value_reference": 16.453946, "structural_low": 19.2043, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010055, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.019081, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.15397, "worst_return": -0.09431, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055915, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.038826, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.270798, "worst_return": -0.063265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051733, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017573, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134872, "worst_return": -0.08619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 20.995001, "volume": 256402, "typical_volume": 144096.5, "trend": 20.53619, "fair_value": 16.309044, "relative_strength": 8.546072, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.218855, "energy": 15.999718, "activity_lines": [ 20.746914, 20.619249, 20.851374, 20.835114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.844999, "volume": 197295, "typical_volume": 144834.5, "trend": 20.634867, "fair_value": 16.343816, "relative_strength": 7.230611, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.482144, "energy": 14.773504, "activity_lines": [ 20.801, 20.654498, 20.843711, 20.855037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.275, "volume": 94868, "typical_volume": 132874.45, "trend": 20.740903, "fair_value": 16.378324, "relative_strength": 8.405314, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.195161, "energy": 25.369477, "activity_lines": [ 20.984333, 20.781433, 20.880913, 20.896336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.395, "volume": 152350, "typical_volume": 130396.1, "trend": 20.848863, "fair_value": 16.416731, "relative_strength": 6.761877, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.124781, "energy": 31.275914, "activity_lines": [ 21.152333, 20.915594, 20.925026, 20.938536 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.030001, "volume": 115049, "typical_volume": 128797.55, "trend": 20.91655, "fair_value": 16.453946, "relative_strength": 2.095776, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.064514, "energy": 28.655345, "activity_lines": [ 21.149334, 20.97088, 20.929113, 20.950222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }