{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ac125e1-c032-46bb-b962-7ca205324992", "symbol": "1454", "name": "Taiwan Taffeta Fabric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.322, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.419, "architecture_energy": 27.598, "architecture_maturity": 13.735, "architecture_confidence": 93.752, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.83, "rotation_up": 20.96, "upward_expansion": 3.07, "deceleration": 47.58, "rotation_down": 45.35, "downward_expansion": 76.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.713333, 12.748182, 12.874286, 12.982151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.6, "trend_reference": 13.141667, "distance_from_trend": -0.041218, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.14659, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16813, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.651693, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106383, "excess_performance": -0.547755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16813, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046673, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.868305, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 66789, "relative_activity": 0.246267, "balance": 0.868305, "dry_up": 0.321886, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054335, "annualized_volatility": 0.232036, "from_high_reference": -0.275862, "from_low_reference": 0.02439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.141667, "fair_value_reference": 15.14659, "structural_low": 12.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.020202, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.106761, "worst_return": -0.066879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.011495, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090828, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.183607, "worst_return": -0.049296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006345, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.061066, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160772, "worst_return": -0.084507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041543, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003185, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155224, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046195, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.229894, "energy": 29.186525, "activity_lines": [ 12.763333, 12.811818, 12.985952, 13.095376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.55, "volume": 112371, "typical_volume": 280512.3, "trend": 13.161667, "fair_value": 15.226569, "relative_strength": -33.629993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.453854, "energy": 33.111381, "activity_lines": [ 12.68, 12.763636, 12.939762, 13.054409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.95, "volume": 107700, "typical_volume": 276352.05, "trend": 13.156667, "fair_value": 15.2065, "relative_strength": -29.678179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.797012, "energy": 31.123072, "activity_lines": [ 12.75, 12.794545, 12.93381, 13.040753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.8, "volume": 62329, "typical_volume": 272942.75, "trend": 13.151667, "fair_value": 15.174732, "relative_strength": -31.224532, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.920378, "energy": 27.958385, "activity_lines": [ 12.756667, 12.791818, 12.913333, 13.017742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.6, "volume": 66789, "typical_volume": 271205.7, "trend": 13.141667, "fair_value": 15.14659, "relative_strength": -33.651693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.41888, "energy": 27.597552, "activity_lines": [ 12.713333, 12.748182, 12.874286, 12.982151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }