{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ac2a4db-906f-428a-a3f1-f17c4188a1a4", "symbol": "236350", "name": "Mirae Asset Tiger Synth-India Leverage ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.224, "architecture_energy": 68.14, "architecture_maturity": 13.075, "architecture_confidence": 83.148, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.12, "rotation_up": 11.48, "upward_expansion": 16.77, "deceleration": 34.87, "rotation_down": 75.0, "downward_expansion": 90.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 30927.0, 32282.545455, 32815.666667, 33419.139785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30850.0, "trend_reference": 34797.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.113438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37641.321527, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.180422, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.187642, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.245352, "excess_performance": -0.475181, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093917, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.180422, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.371876, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190679, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.245352, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.527767, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8507, "relative_activity": 0.692586, "balance": 0.527767, "dry_up": 1.627887, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077609, "annualized_volatility": 0.311209, "from_high_reference": -0.324276, "from_low_reference": 0.045231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34797.333333, "fair_value_reference": 37641.321527, "structural_low": 29515.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.056273, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.063946, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.192541, "worst_return": -0.114698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06811, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.051259, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.334087, "worst_return": -0.051458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.265437, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.274342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.323688, "worst_return": -0.036561, "sufficient": 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"down", "direction": -32.842235, "energy": 16.861156, "activity_lines": [ 34082.666667, 33930.545455, 33691.238095, 34434.903226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29515.0, "volume": 23861, "typical_volume": 13421.55, "trend": 35596.333333, "fair_value": 37603.281688, "relative_strength": -45.689837, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.72059, "energy": 49.940442, "activity_lines": [ 32385.0, 33181.363636, 33288.714286, 34014.333333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30705.0, "volume": 16471, "typical_volume": 13620.35, "trend": 35184.166667, "fair_value": 37624.150866, "relative_strength": -41.62541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.33705, "energy": 63.312666, "activity_lines": [ 31453.0, 32699.0, 33037.309524, 33698.763441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30850.0, "volume": 8507, "typical_volume": 12282.95, "trend": 34797.333333, "fair_value": 37641.321527, "relative_strength": -37.187642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.224363, "energy": 68.139649, "activity_lines": [ 30927.0, 32282.545455, 32815.666667, 33419.139785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }