{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ac84501-94c4-498e-98a6-80c6645c2a93", "symbol": "FCAL", "name": "FIRST TRUST CALIFORNIA MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 74.692, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.982, "architecture_energy": 33.204, "architecture_maturity": 44.273, "architecture_confidence": 66.382, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.2, "rotation_up": 19.0, "upward_expansion": 12.09, "deceleration": 56.79, "rotation_down": 62.14, "downward_expansion": 46.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.835915, 49.046269, 49.098954, 49.093193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.91, "trend_reference": 49.094081, "distance_from_trend": -0.00375, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.0442, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.039661, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.162374, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.00521, "excess_performance": -0.192664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004444, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.039661, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121624, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026743, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81171, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150268, "relative_activity": 1.54658, "balance": 0.81171, "dry_up": 0.870952, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0078, "annualized_volatility": 0.038228, "from_high_reference": -0.017889, "from_low_reference": 0.055532 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.094081, "fair_value_reference": 47.0442, "structural_low": 48.270054, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.000535, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.009283, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.014269, "worst_return": -0.019754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002847, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.044862, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.023317, "worst_return": -0.044476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011526, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.082814, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022038, "worst_return": -0.00533, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 95293.05, "trend": 49.092891, "fair_value": 47.016151, "relative_strength": -8.554825, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.899827, "energy": 32.171795, "activity_lines": [ 48.887464, 49.099903, 49.112933, 49.104992 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.91, "volume": 150268, "typical_volume": 97161.5, "trend": 49.094081, "fair_value": 47.0442, "relative_strength": -12.162374, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.982243, "energy": 33.204076, "activity_lines": [ 48.835915, 49.046269, 49.098954, 49.093193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }