{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ad04cc7-0860-4c41-aade-779d785a90fa", "symbol": "RAIZ4", "name": "Ra\u00edzen S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.748, "architecture_energy": 88.836, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.519, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 9.99, "upward_expansion": 21.53, "deceleration": 37.2, "rotation_down": 82.89, "downward_expansion": 99.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.27, 0.313818, 0.365667, 0.416323 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.506333, "distance_from_trend": -0.486504, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.09366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.875816, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -65.437773, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.690476, "excess_performance": -0.633428, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.486504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.242394, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.875816, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073131, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.654378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023395, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.690476, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.081538, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104064900, "relative_activity": 1.603976, "balance": 0.081538, "dry_up": 1.114886, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.213018, "annualized_volatility": 0.745073, "from_high_reference": -0.816901, "from_low_reference": 0.04 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.506333, "fair_value_reference": 2.09366, "structural_low": 0.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.011905, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.030999, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.2875, "worst_return": -0.38835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.163462, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.236482, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.059488, "worst_return": -0.391813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.293388, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.382557, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.24698, "worst_return": -0.491228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.298966, "energy": 82.81636, "activity_lines": [ 0.350667, 0.374909, 0.417, 0.471312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.26, "volume": 60132700, "typical_volume": 85879775.0, "trend": 0.544, "fair_value": 2.138961, "relative_strength": -68.09493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.434023, "energy": 92.477383, "activity_lines": [ 0.313333, 0.351455, 0.398667, 0.451806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.26, "volume": 60987700, "typical_volume": 73458720.0, "trend": 0.526, "fair_value": 2.115605, "relative_strength": -67.591554, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.223577, "energy": 92.185975, "activity_lines": [ 0.286667, 0.331455, 0.381714, 0.433484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 104064900, "typical_volume": 64879320.0, "trend": 0.506333, "fair_value": 2.09366, "relative_strength": -65.437773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.748278, "energy": 88.836382, "activity_lines": [ 0.27, 0.313818, 0.365667, 0.416323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }