{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ad0c09e-b396-45e2-956e-912ea635e9c8", "symbol": "002190", "name": "Sichuan Chengfei Integration Technology Corp.Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.077, "architecture_energy": 56.181, "architecture_maturity": 90.759, "architecture_confidence": 87.552, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.81, "rotation_up": 23.06, "upward_expansion": 9.43, "deceleration": 59.08, "rotation_down": 54.82, "downward_expansion": 80.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.721333, 23.249454, 25.412524, 27.329376 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.200001, "trend_reference": 30.212667, "distance_from_trend": -0.23211, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.39412, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.048951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.238719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.357697, "excess_performance": -0.365096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.23211, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139322, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.048951, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.314569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.362387, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.357697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.312768, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23796020, "relative_activity": 0.935654, "balance": 1.312768, "dry_up": 1.153229, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114854, "annualized_volatility": 0.3623, "from_high_reference": -0.605241, "from_low_reference": 0.139489 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.212667, "fair_value_reference": 24.39412, "structural_low": 20.360001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.013481, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.001278, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.081281, "worst_return": -0.145198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021348, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000157, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.124384, "worst_return": -0.139523, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012347, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.649015, "worst_return": -0.237241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -80.111924, "energy": 87.208188, "activity_lines": [ 24.068666, 25.578545, 27.720428, 29.627849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.99, "volume": 18849738, "typical_volume": 25351388.2, "trend": 31.591334, "fair_value": 24.374406, "relative_strength": -41.747341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.086873, "energy": 91.406168, "activity_lines": [ 22.801333, 24.481091, 26.902476, 28.909376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.85, "volume": 37632438, "typical_volume": 24675735.9, "trend": 31.153333, "fair_value": 24.378628, "relative_strength": -36.136138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.794968, "energy": 69.687505, "activity_lines": [ 22.559333, 23.894909, 26.335619, 28.345419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.879999, "volume": 37039772, "typical_volume": 25306914.3, "trend": 30.675333, "fair_value": 24.384708, "relative_strength": -34.448967, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.814782, "energy": 61.59809, "activity_lines": [ 22.568, 23.476182, 25.830809, 27.811656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 23796020, "typical_volume": 25432497.65, "trend": 30.212667, "fair_value": 24.39412, "relative_strength": -36.238719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.077075, "energy": 56.181151, "activity_lines": [ 22.721333, 23.249454, 25.412524, 27.329376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }