{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ad5378c-f2e8-40db-9668-e758b305766c", "symbol": "UTL", "name": "UIL Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.114, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.271, "architecture_energy": 8.342, "architecture_maturity": 20.149, "architecture_confidence": 92.218, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.07, "rotation_up": 25.76, "upward_expansion": 41.61, "deceleration": 83.43, "rotation_down": 27.23, "downward_expansion": 30.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 197.533333, 198.708556, 198.759016, 197.177005 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 198.0, "trend_reference": 191.975528, "distance_from_trend": 0.031381, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 133.988666, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.477737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.672135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.237632, "excess_performance": 0.186397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031381, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069996, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.477737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.056721, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.237632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.897295, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38896, "relative_activity": 1.545264, "balance": 3.897295, "dry_up": 1.431662, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056315, "annualized_volatility": 0.205977, "from_high_reference": -0.074766, "from_low_reference": 0.5846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 191.975528, "fair_value_reference": 133.988666, "structural_low": 157.983109, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.044814, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.041276, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.027397, "worst_return": -0.10084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.093531, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.110736, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.06412, "worst_return": -0.142572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.160968, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.174425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.064312, "worst_return": -0.312891, 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"2026-06-26", "close": 203.0, "volume": 504, "typical_volume": 30384.75, "trend": 183.471506, "fair_value": 131.936878, "relative_strength": 15.84414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.994226, "energy": 46.258494, "activity_lines": [ 201.86536, 199.923627, 198.655415, 192.904367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 199.0, "volume": 240, "typical_volume": 29458.5, "trend": 184.806099, "fair_value": 132.291116, "relative_strength": 11.118893, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.523665, "energy": 33.727683, "activity_lines": [ 201.064707, 199.943032, 198.970482, 193.906206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 199.0, "volume": 6283, "typical_volume": 27402.25, "trend": 186.356642, "fair_value": 132.626159, "relative_strength": 12.399835, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.572948, "energy": 30.269672, "activity_lines": [ 200.2, 199.962082, 199.133082, 194.821941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 201.0, "volume": 42587, "typical_volume": 28281.9, "trend": 187.990517, "fair_value": 132.980421, "relative_strength": 11.807548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.555826, "energy": 27.324762, "activity_lines": [ 200.4, 200.344414, 199.393211, 195.766674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 196.0, "volume": 35155, "typical_volume": 28331.4, "trend": 189.441061, "fair_value": 133.30583, "relative_strength": 7.126856, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.11977, "energy": 14.958557, "activity_lines": [ 198.8, 199.726745, 199.134193, 196.283415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 196.0, "volume": 27508, "typical_volume": 26335.5, "trend": 190.708291, "fair_value": 133.640838, "relative_strength": 5.385884, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.659303, "energy": 12.293058, "activity_lines": [ 197.6, 199.036007, 198.848986, 196.706572 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 198.0, "volume": 38896, "typical_volume": 25171.1, "trend": 191.975528, "fair_value": 133.988666, "relative_strength": 5.672135, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.271134, "energy": 8.342051, "activity_lines": [ 197.533333, 198.708556, 198.759016, 197.177005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }