{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4ad71f90-e1df-4456-98de-3a1d36cb9a6f", "symbol": "FNGO", "name": "Bank of Montreal", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.395, "architecture_energy": 43.287, "architecture_maturity": 36.874, "architecture_confidence": 77.356, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.14, "rotation_up": 52.29, "upward_expansion": 75.65, "deceleration": 61.62, "rotation_down": 21.16, "downward_expansion": 4.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.230653, 133.758922, 131.570928, 124.835024 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 153.15, "trend_reference": 116.99024, "distance_from_trend": 0.309084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 85.954505, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.781757, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.632807, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.550572, "excess_performance": 0.424947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.309084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028438, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.781757, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.146328, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075288, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.550572, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886164, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64940, "relative_activity": 1.650074, "balance": 0.886164, "dry_up": 0.692109, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095, "annualized_volatility": 0.594018, "from_high_reference": -0.027611, "from_low_reference": 0.937259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 116.99024, "fair_value_reference": 85.954505, "structural_low": 79.055, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020053, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.02003, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.217748, "worst_return": -0.091787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.201471, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.145936, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.38301, "worst_return": -0.263508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.250317, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.120456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.696843, "worst_return": -0.278238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173377, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143206, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074616, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103376, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.579955, "energy": 22.55487, "activity_lines": [ 128.606933, 130.046251, 127.629867, 121.411748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 130.8672, "volume": 27275, "typical_volume": 37914.1, "trend": 115.776997, "fair_value": 85.202069, "relative_strength": 1.599681, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.075702, "energy": 23.176055, "activity_lines": [ 129.548567, 129.854176, 128.618257, 122.423863 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 153.15, "volume": 64940, "typical_volume": 39355.8, "trend": 116.99024, "fair_value": 85.954505, "relative_strength": 14.632807, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.394904, "energy": 43.28655, "activity_lines": [ 137.230653, 133.758922, 131.570928, 124.835024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }