{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4adb57c8-ce79-4309-b214-0c9585497c02", "symbol": "300370", "name": "Sichuan Etrol Technologies Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.982, "architecture_energy": 52.132, "architecture_maturity": 79.113, "architecture_confidence": 91.568, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 25.03, "upward_expansion": 8.41, "deceleration": 60.44, "rotation_down": 53.65, "downward_expansion": 81.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.060667, 2.077455, 2.214429, 2.335978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.12, "trend_reference": 2.491, "distance_from_trend": -0.148936, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.608269, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1872, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.983935, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.229091, "excess_performance": -0.236491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148936, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1872, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164048, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025394, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.229091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606722, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130350220, "relative_activity": 1.338725, "balance": 0.606722, "dry_up": 1.240529, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08418, "annualized_volatility": 0.295864, "from_high_reference": -0.40113, "from_low_reference": 0.121693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.491, "fair_value_reference": 2.608269, "structural_low": 1.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.029679, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.015419, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.543046, "worst_return": -0.154472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.022814, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.009596, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.383721, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.136135, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034404, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.686047, "worst_return": -0.309237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.126519, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.210694, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.458515, "worst_return": -0.084, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088737, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011278, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.258427, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009709, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124611, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013559, "active": false 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.184363, "energy": 87.207843, "activity_lines": [ 2.099333, 2.214, 2.360143, 2.464323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.97, "volume": 129101803, "typical_volume": 124577382.25, "trend": 2.546667, "fair_value": 2.625192, "relative_strength": -28.85705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.891485, "energy": 89.521627, "activity_lines": [ 2.044, 2.151455, 2.310429, 2.425613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.99, "volume": 115132050, "typical_volume": 108975787.45, "trend": 2.525333, "fair_value": 2.618654, "relative_strength": -27.608772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.887072, "energy": 80.339118, "activity_lines": [ 2.016667, 2.104182, 2.267143, 2.389699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.08, "volume": 108571927, "typical_volume": 102123969.8, "trend": 2.507333, "fair_value": 2.613141, "relative_strength": -22.346679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.41106, "energy": 59.584047, "activity_lines": [ 2.034, 2.083455, 2.237048, 2.360968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.12, "volume": 130350220, "typical_volume": 97368949.65, "trend": 2.491, "fair_value": 2.608269, "relative_strength": -23.983935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.981845, "energy": 52.131646, "activity_lines": [ 2.060667, 2.077455, 2.214429, 2.335978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }