{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4adc67b8-0ab3-4ccc-961f-c6e1d225b3c1", "symbol": "XYZ", "name": "RSXYZ Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.893, "architecture_energy": 61.116, "architecture_maturity": 41.929, "architecture_confidence": 95.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.32, "rotation_up": 23.33, "upward_expansion": 9.92, "deceleration": 51.24, "rotation_down": 65.39, "downward_expansion": 87.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.270667, 0.279455, 0.307476, 0.332194 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.366, "distance_from_trend": -0.289617, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.582907, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.55396, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.713138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.380952, "excess_performance": -0.573277, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.289617, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197368, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.55396, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.607131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152155, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.380952, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.021284, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1922600, "relative_activity": 1.654988, "balance": 0.021284, "dry_up": 1.369114, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130178, "annualized_volatility": 0.38802, "from_high_reference": -0.818182, "from_low_reference": 0.130435 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.366, "fair_value_reference": 0.582907, "structural_low": 0.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.034483, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.100201, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.034483, "worst_return": -0.034483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103448, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 1.63, "volume": 7152600, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 1.58, "volume": 4133000, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"relative_strength": -60.814591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.780378, "energy": 66.141044, "activity_lines": [ 0.282, 0.292182, 0.322762, 0.34671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.27, "volume": 870300, "typical_volume": 1090605.0, "trend": 0.373667, "fair_value": 0.586706, "relative_strength": -61.012256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.573622, "energy": 60.401816, "activity_lines": [ 0.277333, 0.285818, 0.315286, 0.339527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 1922600, "typical_volume": 1161700.0, "trend": 0.366, "fair_value": 0.582907, "relative_strength": -60.713138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.892668, "energy": 61.115629, "activity_lines": [ 0.270667, 0.279455, 0.307476, 0.332194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }