{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4add78b1-b084-4458-b050-84647dde6a16", "symbol": "WMI", "name": "Waste Management, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.049, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.547, "architecture_energy": 35.057, "architecture_maturity": 6.548, "architecture_confidence": 67.656, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.76, "rotation_up": 60.04, "upward_expansion": 47.17, "deceleration": 23.74, "rotation_down": 19.05, "downward_expansion": 22.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 4042.02334, 4022.695819, 3954.288389, 3970.500474 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3955.0, "trend_reference": 3982.298307, "distance_from_trend": -0.006855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3853.774893, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026266, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.050585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001746, "excess_performance": 0.056413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006855, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007083, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026266, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038481, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030506, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154808, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001746, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.171213, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5151, "relative_activity": 4.395614, "balance": 5.171213, "dry_up": 1.38627, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031384, "annualized_volatility": 0.27912, "from_high_reference": -0.092403, "from_low_reference": 0.091961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3982.298307, "fair_value_reference": 3853.774893, "structural_low": 3674.280742, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010776, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.073593, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.019343, "worst_return": -0.056813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.01511, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.080729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085131, "worst_return": -0.115351, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.22523, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068072, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22523, "worst_return": 0.22523, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": 2.85277, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.457162, "energy": 65.229753, "activity_lines": [ 4143.922005, 4023.430567, 3958.525122, 3975.670909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3929.75, "volume": 607, "typical_volume": 914.85, "trend": 3981.601912, "fair_value": 3846.19224, "relative_strength": -4.139225, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.528736, "energy": 47.047534, "activity_lines": [ 4088.089339, 4022.405811, 3954.430589, 3972.216726 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3955.0, "volume": 5151, "typical_volume": 1171.85, "trend": 3982.298307, "fair_value": 3853.774893, "relative_strength": -3.050585, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.546688, "energy": 35.057156, "activity_lines": [ 4042.02334, 4022.695819, 3954.288389, 3970.500474 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }