{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4aebe054-12da-4061-9e6f-7e0778307729", "symbol": "VAL", "name": "Valaris Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 84.617, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.125, "architecture_energy": 23.705, "architecture_maturity": 14.418, "architecture_confidence": 80.603, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.77, "rotation_up": 28.02, "upward_expansion": 21.64, "deceleration": 66.57, "rotation_down": 41.32, "downward_expansion": 37.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.66, 78.622909, 84.228714, 86.477978 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 78.78, "trend_reference": 85.473, "distance_from_trend": -0.078305, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.468397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261118, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.093646, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.262298, "excess_performance": 0.136673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11306, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.261118, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.40199, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.262298, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.395862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3846528, "relative_activity": 0.849664, "balance": 0.395862, "dry_up": 1.005135, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105752, "annualized_volatility": 0.74975, "from_high_reference": -0.309674, "from_low_reference": 0.809786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.473, "fair_value_reference": 62.468397, "structural_low": 71.47, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020277, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.060487, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180012, "worst_return": -0.137632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063194, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.100719, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.117112, "worst_return": -0.093735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.003734, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.228691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.832402, "worst_return": -0.151006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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76.687333, 81.123273, 87.332095, 87.349247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 79.53, "volume": 4605390, "typical_volume": 4574722.7, "trend": 83.701333, "fair_value": 62.427372, "relative_strength": 5.661446, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.084835, "energy": 40.146809, "activity_lines": [ 77.572, 79.908727, 86.28381, 87.144688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 79.19, "volume": 6177957, "typical_volume": 4680466.2, "trend": 84.602667, "fair_value": 62.446346, "relative_strength": 3.436799, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.73462, "energy": 30.3249, "activity_lines": [ 78.278667, 79.103273, 85.241143, 86.853634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.78, "volume": 3846528, "typical_volume": 4527118.85, "trend": 85.473, "fair_value": 62.468397, "relative_strength": -1.093646, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.12531, "energy": 23.704556, "activity_lines": [ 78.66, 78.622909, 84.228714, 86.477978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }