{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4af434bb-6b59-47c9-a4f6-0f27111bddd2", "symbol": "XAGZ", "name": "LEGAL & GENERAL UCITS ETF PUBLI", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.22, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.13, "architecture_energy": 19.283, "architecture_maturity": 68.514, "architecture_confidence": 57.872, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.1, "rotation_up": 41.27, "upward_expansion": 26.25, "deceleration": 53.0, "rotation_down": 22.12, "downward_expansion": 30.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.049333, 13.893273, 14.184848, 14.236783 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.187, "trend_reference": 14.117733, "distance_from_trend": 0.004906, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.358926, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.502925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087877, "excess_performance": 0.036641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004906, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054234, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015029, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087877, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.031312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.031312, "dry_up": 0.009263, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025175, "annualized_volatility": 0.158405, "from_high_reference": -0.09209, "from_low_reference": 0.368477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.117733, "fair_value_reference": 11.358926, "structural_low": 12.741, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.065589, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043872, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.065589, "worst_return": 0.065589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.254384, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067093, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-04-26", "close": 10.0403, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-03", "close": 9.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 9.97, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-17", "close": 10.301, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 10.13, "volume": 999, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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13.562133, 13.872436, 14.266852, 14.206957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.167, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1422.8, "trend": 13.9826, "fair_value": 11.312077, "relative_strength": 3.328125, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.338229, "energy": 41.265493, "activity_lines": [ 13.763067, 13.864964, 14.240324, 14.223355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.059, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1420.15, "trend": 14.055267, "fair_value": 11.335161, "relative_strength": 1.102184, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.93095, "energy": 22.481443, "activity_lines": [ 13.910333, 13.857582, 14.20461, 14.228284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.187, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1268.5, "trend": 14.117733, "fair_value": 11.358926, "relative_strength": 1.502925, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.129656, "energy": 19.283053, "activity_lines": [ 14.049333, 13.893273, 14.184848, 14.236783 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }