{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4afc00ab-f424-4e68-b3c3-534a074e74c0", "symbol": "605028", "name": "Ningbo Shimao Energy Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 54.844, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.203, "architecture_energy": 20.214, "architecture_maturity": 77.606, "architecture_confidence": 71.147, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.12, "rotation_up": 45.02, "upward_expansion": 35.03, "deceleration": 44.41, "rotation_down": 18.24, "downward_expansion": 43.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.968, 24.585818, 24.523096, 25.157733 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.059999, "trend_reference": 26.258859, "distance_from_trend": -0.007573, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.063337, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.367022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.011237, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002229, "excess_performance": 0.045433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007573, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047873, "read": "Falling" 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"invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.003714, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000244, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.369231, "worst_return": -0.107792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.110934, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040426, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.338268, "worst_return": -0.30493, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.073272, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252945, "worst_return": -0.106402, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 33155654, "typical_volume": 11409396.9, "trend": 26.357348, "fair_value": 18.958413, "relative_strength": 8.750071, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.273182, "energy": 16.576813, "activity_lines": [ 24.395334, 23.402364, 24.286896, 25.141773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.9, "volume": 21436700, "typical_volume": 11510520.4, "trend": 26.355264, "fair_value": 19.010767, "relative_strength": 6.497931, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.645035, "energy": 17.918233, "activity_lines": [ 25.531334, 24.089455, 24.441697, 25.176782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.059999, "volume": 8897650, "typical_volume": 11077967.55, "trend": 26.258859, "fair_value": 19.063337, "relative_strength": 0.011237, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.203395, "energy": 20.214438, "activity_lines": [ 25.968, 24.585818, 24.523096, 25.157733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }