{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4afe5982-9605-4b6a-a779-f0efe552f9ed", "symbol": "GAM", "name": "Gaumont SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 61.723, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.831, "architecture_energy": 42.59, "architecture_maturity": 9.14, "architecture_confidence": 65.607, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.73, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 20.21, "deceleration": 40.49, "rotation_down": 61.44, "downward_expansion": 54.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.933333, 105.145455, 105.990476, 106.621505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 102.0, "trend_reference": 106.166667, "distance_from_trend": -0.039246, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 92.919872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.09772, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.207279, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.009901, "excess_performance": -0.04341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.09772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032073, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139469, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.009901, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.328936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 664, "relative_activity": 0.464384, "balance": 0.328936, "dry_up": 0.922474, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059955, "annualized_volatility": 0.4828, "from_high_reference": -0.238806, "from_low_reference": 0.36 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 106.166667, "fair_value_reference": 92.919872, "structural_low": 97.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.012784, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.002429, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.048077, "worst_return": -0.076923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.019336, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.045043, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.015464, "worst_return": -0.092308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036649, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05979, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.015464, "worst_return": -0.083333, 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011628, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.667087, "energy": 12.308379, "activity_lines": [ 106.266667, 105.545455, 107.52381, 106.210753 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 106.0, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": 1522.75, "trend": 103.966667, "fair_value": 92.592949, "relative_strength": 6.683009, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.814989, "energy": 11.091743, "activity_lines": [ 106.333333, 105.363636, 107.438095, 106.380645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 108.0, "volume": 54, "typical_volume": 1488.55, "trend": 104.533333, "fair_value": 92.650641, "relative_strength": 8.807079, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.817412, "energy": 12.739338, "activity_lines": [ 106.8, 106.018182, 107.519048, 106.64086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 112.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1445.45, "trend": 105.183333, "fair_value": 92.746795, "relative_strength": 10.716636, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.323117, "energy": 22.587554, "activity_lines": [ 108.6, 107.309091, 107.947619, 107.122581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 111.0, "volume": 454, "typical_volume": 1436.4, "trend": 105.8, "fair_value": 92.830128, "relative_strength": 11.361593, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.594705, "energy": 27.307715, "activity_lines": [ 109.733333, 108.2, 108.233333, 107.497849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 105.0, "volume": 1762, "typical_volume": 1459.1, "trend": 106.216667, "fair_value": 92.875, "relative_strength": 4.912508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.495127, "energy": 17.239544, "activity_lines": [ 108.466667, 107.836364, 107.904762, 107.446237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.0, "volume": 2254, "typical_volume": 1545.7, "trend": 106.333333, "fair_value": 92.907051, "relative_strength": 2.170823, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.172399, "energy": 4.722948, "activity_lines": [ 106.666667, 107.090909, 107.371429, 107.23871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.0, "volume": 596, "typical_volume": 1529.15, "trend": 106.233333, "fair_value": 92.913462, "relative_strength": -1.629385, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.525878, "energy": 30.159183, "activity_lines": [ 104.4, 105.963636, 106.633333, 106.894624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.0, "volume": 664, "typical_volume": 1429.85, "trend": 106.166667, "fair_value": 92.919872, "relative_strength": -3.207279, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.831191, "energy": 42.589977, "activity_lines": [ 102.933333, 105.145455, 105.990476, 106.621505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }