{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b02c53a-cf24-4aa7-9107-57a60ad7272e", "symbol": "CARG", "name": "Carrier Global Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.517, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.154, "architecture_energy": 20.085, "architecture_maturity": 59.977, "architecture_confidence": 73.968, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.99, "rotation_up": 15.83, "upward_expansion": 52.49, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 40.32, "downward_expansion": 23.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.142493, 59.047637, 58.190402, 56.64266 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 55.380001, "trend_reference": 54.711836, "distance_from_trend": 0.012212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.743539, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.503106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020709, "excess_performance": -0.153538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092996, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006522, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044339, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020709, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067967, "annualized_volatility": 0.348364, "from_high_reference": -0.165159, "from_low_reference": 0.279442 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.711836, "fair_value_reference": 55.743539, "structural_low": 47.133403, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020631, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052186, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033375, "worst_return": -0.051459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.05558, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.16973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.020733, "worst_return": -0.131893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.005726, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.183032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057075, "worst_return": -0.045623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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42.2, "trend": 52.057669, "fair_value": 55.309636, "relative_strength": 0.022676, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.485077, "energy": 92.694581, "activity_lines": [ 61.767319, 59.226148, 56.169095, 54.50794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 61.395641, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 42.2, "trend": 52.556535, "fair_value": 55.424919, "relative_strength": -7.141346, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.577153, "energy": 82.58624, "activity_lines": [ 62.186381, 59.952641, 56.836167, 55.11039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 60.957386, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 25.2, "trend": 53.080086, "fair_value": 55.524112, "relative_strength": -5.758603, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.267424, "energy": 78.924282, "activity_lines": [ 62.036983, 60.426567, 57.431582, 55.652381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.9, "trend": 53.59163, "fair_value": 55.612082, "relative_strength": -4.108218, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.544998, "energy": 57.614625, "activity_lines": [ 61.481965, 60.644653, 57.929113, 56.118182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.919998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.3, "trend": 54.137214, "fair_value": 55.676112, "relative_strength": -3.498035, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.024368, "energy": 44.870075, "activity_lines": [ 61.106945, 60.928193, 58.455396, 56.59098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.98, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.3, "trend": 54.421746, "fair_value": 55.700881, "relative_strength": -13.760886, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.480658, "energy": 15.944911, "activity_lines": [ 58.519361, 59.855733, 58.268753, 56.580837 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.380001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.3, "trend": 54.711836, "fair_value": 55.743539, "relative_strength": -13.503106, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.153611, "energy": 20.084894, "activity_lines": [ 57.142493, 59.047637, 58.190402, 56.64266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }