{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b1a89e8-cbb8-43e0-bbed-4c83c126961b", "symbol": "601996", "name": "Guangxi Fenglin Wood Industry Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.626, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.569, "architecture_energy": 37.222, "architecture_maturity": 11.323, "architecture_confidence": 89.191, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.43, "rotation_up": 18.63, "upward_expansion": 4.33, "deceleration": 54.06, "rotation_down": 53.77, "downward_expansion": 77.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.240667, 2.249818, 2.424762, 2.462516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.36, "trend_reference": 2.478, "distance_from_trend": -0.047619, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.25857, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.365794, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.024793, "excess_performance": 0.01841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015755, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.346841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234657, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.024793, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.341908, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110527863, "relative_activity": 0.564715, "balance": 0.341908, "dry_up": 0.884407, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118318, "annualized_volatility": 0.465674, "from_high_reference": -0.2625, "from_low_reference": 0.255319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.478, "fair_value_reference": 2.25857, "structural_low": 1.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.002165, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.001457, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.155689, "worst_return": -0.156781, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.015644, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003185, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.390533, "worst_return": -0.178255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017242, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.003112, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.207101, "worst_return": -0.220943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092166, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029557, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01992, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"fair_value": 2.261431, "relative_strength": -9.779485, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.00868, "energy": 51.084347, "activity_lines": [ 2.251333, 2.436909, 2.545, 2.531613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.15, "volume": 218499925, "typical_volume": 191288623.25, "trend": 2.487, "fair_value": 2.260405, "relative_strength": -7.421004, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.612915, "energy": 59.49777, "activity_lines": [ 2.189333, 2.353091, 2.506048, 2.509591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.12, "volume": 232137023, "typical_volume": 196443499.3, "trend": 2.478333, "fair_value": 2.259186, "relative_strength": -9.683134, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.199394, "energy": 56.773333, "activity_lines": [ 2.154667, 2.281636, 2.466095, 2.485914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.23, "volume": 131230851, "typical_volume": 197094201.85, "trend": 2.474333, "fair_value": 2.258612, "relative_strength": -5.280917, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.318757, "energy": 48.07253, "activity_lines": [ 2.179333, 2.247091, 2.438571, 2.469892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.36, "volume": 110527863, "typical_volume": 195723237.4, "trend": 2.478, "fair_value": 2.25857, "relative_strength": -2.365794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.569491, "energy": 37.222143, "activity_lines": [ 2.240667, 2.249818, 2.424762, 2.462516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }