{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4b1e4cc7-8191-457c-b563-5f433082e355", "symbol": "MTF-F45", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4A) S&P Financial Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.221, "architecture_energy": 66.894, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.106, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.71, "rotation_up": 29.91, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 47.74, "downward_expansion": 73.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.194667, 141.915818, 1575.018429, 2453.25886 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 55.37, "trend_reference": 3464.211667, "distance_from_trend": -0.984017, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4217.027885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.98687, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.82339, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989238, "excess_performance": -1.018138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984017, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30737, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.98687, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.116198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988234, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.727213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.956612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 184, "relative_activity": 0.009279, "balance": 0.956612, "dry_up": 1.484002, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.272683, "annualized_volatility": 6.369911, "from_high_reference": -0.989722, "from_low_reference": 0.124264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3464.211667, "fair_value_reference": 4217.027885, "structural_low": 49.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.03075, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015775, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.131911, "worst_return": -0.989729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02951, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.012715, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.095611, "worst_return": -0.988966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.036677, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.099372, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.04487, "worst_return": -0.168405, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.33324, "energy": 88.566458, "activity_lines": [ 51.955333, 1374.005091, 2807.305619, 3445.748559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.91, "volume": 90453, "typical_volume": 25638.4, "trend": 3987.856667, "fair_value": 4281.254487, "relative_strength": -98.936325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.332387, "energy": 88.563847, "activity_lines": [ 52.739333, 933.647091, 2464.564714, 3180.812022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.34, "volume": 9836, "typical_volume": 25052.35, "trend": 3812.868, "fair_value": 4260.198974, "relative_strength": -98.948244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.993543, "energy": 83.682906, "activity_lines": [ 53.072, 581.750727, 2145.298524, 2926.972237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.94, "volume": 17241, "typical_volume": 25097.75, "trend": 3638.999333, "fair_value": 4239.063974, "relative_strength": -98.880044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.634511, "energy": 67.555151, "activity_lines": [ 53.478667, 317.484545, 1849.083095, 2684.460753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.37, "volume": 184, "typical_volume": 19830.5, "trend": 3464.211667, "fair_value": 4217.027885, "relative_strength": -98.82339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.221156, "energy": 66.893882, "activity_lines": [ 54.194667, 141.915818, 1575.018429, 2453.25886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }